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Can Economists Predict Recessions?


Abstract: An analysis of 55 years of data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters suggests that quarter-ahead recession forecasts are fairly accurate but still have a great deal of uncertainty.

Keywords: recessions; recession forecasts; forecasting; Survey of Professional Forecasters;

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File(s): File format is text/html https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2023/sep/can-economists-predict-recessions
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Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Source: On the Economy

Publication Date: 2023-09-26