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Working Paper
Term structure views of monetary policy

Term structure models and many descriptions of the transmission of monetary policy rest on the empirical relevance of the expectations hypothesis. Small differences in the perceived policy reaction function in VAR models of agent expectations strongly influence the relevance in the transmission mechanism of the expected short rate component of bond yields. Mean-reverting or difference-stationary characterizations of interest rates require large and volatile term premiums to match the observable term structure. However, short rate descriptions that capture shifting perceptions of long-horizon ...
Research Working Paper , Paper 98-07

Working Paper
Does money matter anymore? A comment on Friedman and Kuttner

Research Working Paper , Paper 92-07

Working Paper
When does the cost channel pose a challenge to inflation targeting central banks?

In a sticky-price model where firms finance their production inputs, there is both a lower and an upper bound on the central bank's inflation response necessary to rule out the possibility of self-fulfilling inflation expectations. This paper shows that real wage rigidities decrease this upper bound, but coefficients in the range of those on the Taylor rule place the economy well within the determinacy region. However, when there is time-variation in the share of firms who finance their inputs (i.e. Markov-Switching) then inflation targeting interest rate rules are often found to result in ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 15-6

Journal Article
Measuring M

FRBSF Economic Letter

Inside and outside money

A distinction is drawn between outside money - money that is either of a fiat nature or backed by some asset that is not in zero net supply within the private sector - and inside money, which is an asset backed by any form of private credit that circulates as a medium of exchange.
Staff Report , Paper 374

Working Paper
Is foreign-currency indexed debt a commitment technology? Some evidence from Brazil and Mexico

We examine the effects of foreign currency-indexed debt upon inflationary expectations in Brazil and Mexico. Conjecturing that markets will view increasing overhangs of foreign currency-indexed debt as a commitment technology that fiscally punishes devaluation, we test whether increasing such overhangs will attenuate the effect of monetary growth upon inflationary expectations. We find some econometric confirmation of these conjectures in both the Brazilian and Mexican cases. Finding that the results are consistent with the notion that increasing the share of dollar indexed debt may also ...
Center for Latin America Working Papers , Paper 0299

Working Paper
Currency ratios and U.S. underground economic activity

Cagan's classic currency ratio suggests that underground economic activity in the U.S. surged starting in 1994. In contrast, we show that a ratio adjusted to take care of two distorting developments -- retail sweep programs and overseas demand for U.S. currency -- did not surge, and that movements in the adjusted ratio owe primarily to the differential effects of interest rates on currency and checkable deposits. As a result, we are skeptical of monetary-based claims that the underground economy has expanded significantly in recent years and believe that any claims that is has must rely on ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1998-41

Working Paper
The big problem of small change

Western Europe was plagued with currency shortages from the 14th century, at which a 'standard formula' had been devised to cure the problem. We use a cash-in-advance model of commodity money to define a currency shortage, show that they could develop and persist under commodity money regime, and analyze the role played by each ingredient in the standard formula. A companion paper documents the evolution of monetary theory, monetary experiments and minting technology over the course of six hundred years.
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues , Paper WP-97-08

Working Paper
Stored value cards: costly private substitutes for currency

A model in which both currency and stored value cards are used to make payments is presented. I compare steady-state equilibria with and without stored value cards. Stored value cards are beneficial because they help alleviate the deadweight loss due to inflation. When the nominal interest rate is greater than the government's resource cost of providing currency, the alternative means of payment may have larger real resource costs than the currency it replaces. Stored value results in either a net increase or a net decrease in economic welfare depending upon whether average costs are below or ...
Working Paper , Paper 96-03

Working Paper
A theory of money and banking

The authors construct a simple environment that combines a limited communication friction and a limited information friction in order to generate a role for money and intermediation. They ask whether there is any reason to expect the emergence of a banking sector (i.e., institutions that combine the business of money creation with the business of intermediation). In their model, the unique equilibrium is characterized partly by the existence of an agent that: (1) creates money (a debt instrument that circulates as a means of payment); (2) lends it out (swapping it for less liquid forms of ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 0310



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