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Newsletter
How does labor adjustment in this recession compare with the past?
The authors examine how firms are adjusting their work force during the current recession in comparison with other recessions over the past 40 years.
Newsletter
Strategies for improving economic mobility of workers - a conference preview
On November 15-16, 2007, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's Economic Research Department and Consumer and Community Affairs Division, along with the W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, will cosponsor a conference to present research on policies, practices, and initiatives affecting low-wage workers.
Working Paper
How does labor mobility affect income convergence?
The neoclassical growth model is extended to allow for mobile labor. Following a negative shock to a small economy's capital stock, capital and labor frictions effect an equilibrium transition path during which wages remain below their steady-state level. Outmigration directly contributes to faster income convergence but also creates a disincentive for gross capital formation. The net result is that across a wide range of calibrations, the speed of income convergence is relatively insensitive to the degree of labor mobility.
Journal Article
New data on worker flows during business cycles
The most obvious economic cost of recessions is that workers become involuntarily unemployed. During the average business cycle contraction, total employment declines by about 1.5 percent, the unemployment rate rises by 2.7 percentage points, and it takes almost two years before employment recovers its pre-recession level. Both fiscal policy and monetary policy are concerned with these business cycle deviations of employment from its "full-employment" or "equilibrium" level. The aggregate statistics on employment and unemployment mask economically important information about the composition ...
Working Paper
Trends in U. S. family income mobility, 1969-2006
Much of America's promise is predicated on economic mobility?the idea that people are not limited or defined by where they start, but can move up the economic ladder based on their efforts and accomplishments. Family income mobility?changes in individual families' income positions over time?is one indicator of the degree to which the eventual economic wellbeing of any family is tethered to its starting point. In the United States, family income inequality has risen from year to year since the mid-1970s; given this rising cross-sectional inequality, changes over time in mobility determine the ...
Working Paper
To Build or to Buy? The Role of Local Information in Credit Market Development
Exploiting the heterogeneity in legal constraints on local bank employees' mobility, I show that access to local information influences banks' modes of expansion. Banks entering a new market typically establish new branches directly when interbank labor mobility is less restrictive but acquire incumbent branches otherwise. The treatment effect is strengthened when information asymmetries between local and entrants are severe. Furthermore, I find a surge in the total amount of local small business and mortgage loans granted, a higher mortgage approval rate, and a reduction of mortgage rates by ...
Newsletter
Explaining the recent decline in the unemployment rate
The unemployment rate fell by nearly 1 percentage point between November 2010 and March 2011. Was this drop due to unemployed workers exhausting their unemployment insurance (UI) benefits and choosing to stop looking for work or due to more positive labor market developments, such as fewer workers losing their jobs or more workers finding new jobs?
Journal Article
The decline in teen labor force participation
The authors examine the recent decline in teen work activity, offering explanations for both the long secular decline since the late 1970s and the recent acceleration in this decline since 2000. They argue that much of this pattern is due to a significant increase in the rewards to formal education. They also explore the importance of changes to labor demand, crowding out by substitutable workers, the increased work activity of mothers, and increases in wealth.
Journal Article
Gross job flows between plants and industries
A remarkable feature of the current U.S. economic expansion has been its ability to shrug off the adverse effects of financial crises and economic slowdowns around the world for nearly two years. Recently, however, foreign-sector developments have triggered a sizable shift in the sectoral composition of U.S. employment. By early 1999, employment growth in the goods-producing sector was still humming along. Historically, substantial shifts in labor demand between sectors have been correlated with the business cycle. But recent developments are unusual and highlight our incomplete ...