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Working Paper
Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty : A US and Euro Area Comparison
Grishchenko, Olesya V.; Mouabbi, Sarah; Renne, Jean-Paul (2017-10-03)
We use several US and euro-area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time-varying uncertainty. We obtain survey-consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the US and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that accounts for inflation uncertainty. Our results suggest that following the Great Recession, inflation anchoring improved in the US, while mild de-anchoring occurred in the euro-area. As of our sample end, both areas appear to be ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-102

Surging House Prices Expected to Propel Rent Increases, Push Up Inflation
Zhou, Xiaoqing; Dolmas, Jim (2021-08-24)
The inflation rates of rent and owners’ equivalent rent (OER)—the amount of rent equivalent to the cost of ownership—have declined sharply since the COVID-19 pandemic began in February 2020. However, we expect rent inflation and OER inflation to accelerate in the years to come.
Dallas Fed Economics

Report
What Is Driving Inflation—Besides the Usual Culprits?
Cotton, Christopher D.; Garga, Vaishali (2023-07-13)
The prices of services associated with low-skill workers have been a key driver of “supercore” inflation, which excludes food, energy prices, and shelter prices. Low-skill-services inflation seems to be tied to faster wage growth in those industries coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic. Wage growth in low-skill services has begun to decline, suggesting that there may be lower inflation in these industries going forward. At the same time, wage growth in high-skill services has recently accelerated, suggesting that there may be higher inflation in these industries in the near future.
Current Policy Perspectives

Working Paper
How Markets Process Macro News: The Importance of Investor Attention
Kroner, Niklas (2025-03-26)
I provide evidence that investors' attention allocation plays a critical role in how financial markets incorporate macroeconomic news. Using intraday data, I document a sharp increase in the market reaction to Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases during the 2021-2023 inflation surge. Bond yields, market-implied inflation expectations, and other asset prices exhibit significantly stronger responses to CPI surprises, while reactions to other macroeconomic announcements remain largely unchanged. The joint reactions of these asset prices point to an attention-based explanation–an interpretation ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-022

Speech
The Great Inflation 2.0 Debate
Evans, Charles L. (2009-07-08)
Remarks by Charles L. Evans, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Council on Foreign Relations New York, NY
Speech , Paper 32

Working Paper
Monetary policy, trend inflation, and the Great Moderation: an alternative interpretation: comment based on system estimation
Kurozumi, Takushi; Hirose, Yasuo; Van Zandweghe, Willem (2015-12-01)
What caused the U.S. economy's shift from the Great Inflation era to the Great Moderation era? {{p}} A large literature shows that the shift was achieved by the change in monetary policy from a passive to an active response to inflation. However, Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2011) attribute the shift to a fall in trend inflation along with the policy change, based on a solely estimated Taylor rule and a calibrated staggered-price model. We estimate the Taylor rule and the staggered-price model jointly and demonstrate that the change in monetary policy responses to inflation and other variables ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 15-17

Working Paper
The Skewness of the Price Change Distribution : A New Touchstone for Sticky Price Models
Luo, Shaowen; Villar Vallenas, Daniel (2017-03-10)
We present a new way of empirically evaluating various sticky price models used to assess the degree of monetary non-neutrality. While menu cost models uniformly predict that price change skewness and dispersion fall with inflation, in the Calvo model both rise. However, CPI price data from the late 1970's onwards shows that skewness does not fall with inflation, while dispersion does. We develop a random menu cost model that, with a menu cost distribution that has a strong Calvo feature, can match the empirical patterns found. The model therefore exhibits much more monetary non-neutrality ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-028

Speech
2025 Economic Outlook
Barkin, Tom (2025-01-03)
A strong but choosier consumer, coupled with a better-valued, more productive workforce has landed the economy in a good place.My baseline outlook is good. How economic policy uncertainty resolves will matter. But, with what we know today, I expect more upside than downside in terms of growth. I see more risk on the inflation side.The Fed remains well-positioned regardless of how the economy develops. Were employment to falter or inflation to re-emerge, we have the tools to respond.
Speech

Speech
Perspectives on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy. University of Pittsburgh Joseph M. Katz Graduate School of Business and Deloitte LLP, Pittsburgh, PA
Mester, Loretta J. (2018-04-19)
Let me begin by thanking Dean Arjang Assad of the Katz Graduate School of Business and Dmitri Shiry of Deloitte for inviting me to speak with you this evening. Dmitri performs important public service as a member of the board of directors of the Cleveland Fed?s Pittsburgh Branch, and it just so happens that this building formerly housed our branch. The regional nature of the Federal Reserve has served the country well for more than 100 years. It allows monetary policy decisions to take into account the diversity of the American economy and its people and helps ensure that those decisions ...
Speech , Paper 97

Speech
Remarks on the FOMC’s Monetary Policy Framework; 02-23-2018: Panel Remarks at the 2018 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, Sponsored by the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, New York, NY
Mester, Loretta J. (2018-02-23)
I will focus my brief remarks on the FOMC?s monetary policy framework for determining the appropriate policy to promote our longer-run monetary policy goals. Recently, some economists and policymakers have recommended that the FOMC evaluate its monetary policy framework. Indeed, a careful reader of the January FOMC minutes, released earlier this week, might have noticed that a few participants suggested such an examination. The FOMC has not indicated whether or not it will undertake such a review. But let me provide my own thoughts on the rationale for undertaking an assessment, what it might ...
Speech , Paper 94

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