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Keywords:Inflation 

Working Paper
Optimal Taxes Under Private Information: The Role of the Inflation Tax

We consider an overlapping generation framework with search and private information to study optimal taxation. Agents sequentially trade in markets that are characterized by different frictions and trading protocols. In frictional decentralized markets, agents receive shocks that determine if they are going to be consumers or producers. Shocks are private information. Mechanism design is used to solve for the constrained optimal allocation. We then study whether a government can replicate the constrained optimal allocation with an array of policy instruments including fiat money. We show that ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017-14

Working Paper
Inflation and Real Activity with Firm Level Productivity Shocks

[REVISED AUG 2019]In the last fifteen years there has been an explosion of empirical work examining price setting behavior at the micro level. The work has in turn challenged existing macro models that attempt to explain monetary nonneutrality, because these models are generally at odds with much of the micro price data. A second generation of models, with fixed costs of price adjustment and idiosyncratic shocks, is more consistent with this micro data. Nonetheless, ambiguity remains about the extent of nonneutrality that can be attributed to costly price adjustment. Using a model that ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-19

Working Paper
Optimized Taylor Rules for Disinflation When Agents are Learning

Highly volatile transition dynamics can emerge when a central bank disinflates while operating without full transparency. In our model, a central bank commits to a Taylor rule whose form is known but whose coefficient are not. Private agents learn about policy parameters via Bayesian updating. Under McCallum's (1999) timing protocol, temporarily explosive dynamics can arise, making the transition highly volatile. Locally-unstable dynamics emerge when there is substantial disagreement between actual and perceived feedback parameters. The central bank can achieve low average inflation, but its ...
Working Paper , Paper 14-7

Blog
COVID-19's Economic Effects on Poor and Emerging Markets

Large amounts of liquidity are needed to deal with the economic consequences of COVID-19. How can the increased demand for liquidity be covered in poor and emerging markets?
On the Economy

Working Paper
The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation

This paper explores the theoretical foundations of a new approach to monetary policy. Proponents of this approach hold that when inflation is moderate but still above the long-run objective, the Fed should not take deliberate anti-inflation action, but rather should wait for external circumstances-such as favorable supply shocks and unforeseen recessions-to deliver the desired reduction in inflation. While waiting for such circumstances to arise, the Fed should aggressively resist incipient increases in inflation. This strategy has come to be known as "the opportunistic approach to ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1996-24

Working Paper
Inflation and Financial Sector Size

Traditionally, the cost of expected inflation has been seen as the "shoeleather cost" of going to the bank more often. This paper focuses on the other side of these transactions--i.e., on the increased production of financial services by financial firms. I construct a model in which households must make purchases either with cash or with costly transactions services produced by firms in the financial services sector. Higher inflation leads households to substitute purchased transactions services for money balances, increasing the size of the financial sector. A test of the model using ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 1996-16

Speech
The Great Inflation 2.0 Debate

Remarks by Charles L. Evans, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Council on Foreign Relations New York, NY
Speech , Paper 32

Speech
Bank of Korea International Conference Panel Comments

Remarks for the Bank of Korea International Conference 2010, June 1, 2010 Seoul, Korea
Speech , Paper 41

Working Paper
Inflation at the Household Level

We use scanner data to estimate inflation rates at the household level. Households' inflation rates have an annual interquartile range of 6.2 to 9.0 percentage points. Most of the heterogeneity comes not from variation in broadly defined consumption bundles but from variation in prices paid for the same types of goods. Lower-income households experience higher inflation, but most cross-sectional variation is uncorrelated with observables. Households' deviations from aggregate inflation exhibit only slightly negative serial correlation. Almost all variability in a household's inflation rate ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2017-13

Working Paper
Is Inflation Default? The Role of Information in Debt Crises

We consider a two-period Bayesian trading game where in each period informed agents decide whether to buy an asset ("government debt") after observing an idiosyncratic signal about the prospects of default. While second-period buyers only need to forecast default, first-period buyers pass the asset to the new agents in the secondary market, and thus need to form beliefs about the price that will prevail at that stage. We provide conditions such that coarser information in the hands of second-period agents makes the price of debt more resilient to bad shocks not only in the last period, ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2017-6

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