Search Results
Showing results 1 to 10 of approximately 94.
(refine search)
Discussion Paper
Who Is Driving the Recent Decline in Consumers Inflation Expectations?
Armantier, Olivier; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Zafar, Basit; Topa, Giorgio
(2016-01-05)
The expectations of U.S. consumers about inflation have declined to record lows over the past several months. That is the finding of two leading surveys, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) and the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers (SoC). In this post, we examine whether this decline is broad-based or whether it is driven by specific demographic groups.
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20160105
Working Paper
Seigniorage and Sovereign Default: The Response of Emerging Markets to COVID-19
Sanchez, Juan M.; Kozlowski, Julian; Martin, Fernando M.; Espino, Emilio
Monetary policy affects the tradeoffs faced by governments in sovereign default models. In the absence of lump-sum taxation, governments rely on both distortionary taxes and seigniorage to finance expenditure. Furthermore, monetary policy adds a time-consistency problem in debt choice, which may mitigate or exacerbate the incentives to accumulate debt. A deterioration of the terms-of-trade leads to an increase in sovereign-default risk and inflation, and a reduction in growth, which are consistent with the empirical evidence for emerging economies. An unanticipated shock resembling the ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2020-017
Working Paper
Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations: A New Model and New Facts
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing
(2020-08-18)
The conventional wisdom that inflation expectations respond to the level of the price of oil (or the price of gasoline) is based on testing the null hypothesis of a zero slope coefficient in a static single-equation regression model fit to aggregate data. Given that the regressor in this model is not stationary, the null distribution of the t-test statistic is nonstandard, invalidating the use of the normal approximation. Once the critical values are adjusted, these regressions provide no support for the conventional wisdom. Using a new structural vector regression model, however, we ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2025
Journal Article
Inflation Expectations Limit the Power of Negative Interest Rates
Glover, Andrew; Pollard, Emily
(2020-03-25)
Both the federal funds rate and longer-run yields have dropped to near zero, renewing discussion of negative interest rate policy. Although negative rates would allow for additional cuts in the United States, negative policy rates in line with what other countries have implemented would not be able to achieve the nominal rate reduction of previous easing cycles. Moreover, inflation expectations remained flat or fell after negative rates were introduced in most countries, limiting the expansionary power of these additional rate cuts.
Economic Bulletin
, Issue March 25, 2020
, Pages 4
Conference Paper
Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy : Economic Policy Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 27-29, 2015
Kansas City, Federal Reserve Bank
(2015)
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole
Working Paper
The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation
Orphanides, Athanasios; Wilcox, David W.
This paper explores the theoretical foundations of a new approach to monetary policy. Proponents of this approach hold that when inflation is moderate but still above the long-run objective, the Fed should not take deliberate anti-inflation action, but rather should wait for external circumstances-such as favorable supply shocks and unforeseen recessions-to deliver the desired reduction in inflation. While waiting for such circumstances to arise, the Fed should aggressively resist incipient increases in inflation. This strategy has come to be known as "the opportunistic approach to ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 1996-24
Working Paper
Inflation and Financial Sector Size
English, William B.
Traditionally, the cost of expected inflation has been seen as the "shoeleather cost" of going to the bank more often. This paper focuses on the other side of these transactions--i.e., on the increased production of financial services by financial firms. I construct a model in which households must make purchases either with cash or with costly transactions services produced by firms in the financial services sector. Higher inflation leads households to substitute purchased transactions services for money balances, increasing the size of the financial sector. A test of the model using ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 1996-16
Discussion Paper
A Closer Look at the Recent Pickup in Inflation
Sporn, John; Tambalotti, Andrea
(2011-06-06)
Inflation has picked up in the last few months. Between June and November 2010, the twelve-month change in the seasonally adjusted consumer price index (CPI) was stable, at slightly above 1 percent, but it jumped to 3.1 percent as of last April. Higher food and energy prices have been an important factor behind this pickup in “headline” inflation. However, core inflation has also increased; the year-over-year core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy prices) moved from a record low of 0.6 percent in October 2010 to 1.3 percent in April.
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20110606
Discussion Paper
How Much Do Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation Dynamics?
Shahanaghi, Sara; Sbordone, Argia M.
(2015-09-23)
Inflation dynamics are often described by some form of the Phillips curve. Named after A. W. Phillips, the British economist whose study of U.K. wage and unemployment data laid the groundwork, the Phillips curve denotes an inverse relationship between inflation and some measure of economic slack. A much-discussed issue in the literature is how forward-looking this relationship is. In this post, we address this question using a flexible version of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) to illustrate the key role that expectations play in inflation dynamics.
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20150923
Report
Identifying inflation's grease and sand effects in the labor market
Groshen, Erica L.; Schweitzer, Mark E.
(1997-10-01)
Inflation has been accused of causing distortionary prices and wage fluctuations (sand) as well as lauded for facilitating adjustments to shocks when wages are rigid downwards (grease). This paper investigates whether these two effects can be distinguished from each other in a labor market by the following identification strategy: inflation-induced deviations among employer's mean wage-changes represent unintended intramarket distortions (sand), while inflation-induced, inter-occupational wage-changes reflect intended alignments with intermarket forces (grease). Using a unique 40-year panel ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 31
FILTER BY year
FILTER BY Bank
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 19 items
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 17 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 11 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 11 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 8 items
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 8 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 7 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 6 items
Federal Reserve Bank of New York 5 items
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond 2 items
show more (5)
show less
FILTER BY Series
Speech 16 items
Finance and Economics Discussion Series 14 items
Working Papers 13 items
Dallas Fed Economics 9 items
Macro Bulletin 7 items
Research Working Paper 6 items
Liberty Street Economics 4 items
Chicago Fed Letter 3 items
Economic Review 3 items
International Finance Discussion Papers 3 items
Working Paper Series 3 items
Economic Bulletin 2 items
Staff Report 2 items
Annual Report 1 items
Econ Focus 1 items
Economic Commentary 1 items
Economic Synopses 1 items
On the Economy 1 items
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole 1 items
Research Rap Special Report 1 items
Staff Reports 1 items
Working Paper 1 items
show more (17)
show less
FILTER BY Content Type
Working Paper 40 items
Journal Article 16 items
Speech 16 items
Discussion Paper 4 items
Report 4 items
Newsletter 3 items
Blog 1 items
Conference Paper 1 items
show more (3)
show less
FILTER BY Author
Mester, Loretta J. 9 items
Bundick, Brent 6 items
Smith, Andrew Lee 5 items
Van Zandweghe, Willem 4 items
Wynne, Mark A. 4 items
Dolmas, Jim 3 items
Kaplan, Greg 3 items
Koenig, Evan F. 3 items
Kurozumi, Takushi 3 items
Nicolini, Juan Pablo 3 items
Pollard, Emily 3 items
Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam 3 items
Baughman, Garth 2 items
Bullard, James B. 2 items
Espino, Emilio 2 items
Evans, Charles L. 2 items
Harker, Patrick T. 2 items
Herriford, Trenton 2 items
Kilian, Lutz 2 items
Kozlowski, Julian 2 items
Martin, Fernando M. 2 items
Nakamura, Leonard I. 2 items
Nalewaik, Jeremy J. 2 items
Rabinovich, Stanislav 2 items
Sanchez, Juan M. 2 items
Sbordone, Argia M. 2 items
Zhou, Xiaoqing 2 items
Andolfatto, David 1 items
Arellano, Cristina 1 items
Armantier, Olivier 1 items
Atkinson, Tyler 1 items
Baglan, Deniz 1 items
Bai, Yan 1 items
Barrow, Lisa 1 items
Bassetto, Marco 1 items
Beltran, Daniel O. 1 items
Brown, Jason 1 items
Buera, Francisco J. 1 items
Carlstrom, Charles T. 1 items
Christiano, Lawrence J. 1 items
Clark, Todd E. 1 items
Clouse, James A. 1 items
Cogley, Timothy 1 items
Colton, Tousey 1 items
Cook, Thomas R. 1 items
D'Amico, Stefania 1 items
Datta, Deepa Dhume 1 items
Doh, Taeyoung 1 items
Dotsey, Michael 1 items
Eichenbaum, Martin 1 items
English, William B. 1 items
Faberman, R. Jason 1 items
Faccini, Renato 1 items
Ferreira, Thiago Revil T. 1 items
Foerster, Andrew T. 1 items
Fuerst, Timothy S. 1 items
Gagnon, Joseph E. 1 items
Galli, Carlo 1 items
Gautam, Akshat 1 items
Gilchrist, Simon 1 items
Glover, Andrew 1 items
Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro 1 items
Grishchenko, Olesya V. 1 items
Groen, Jan J. J. 1 items
Groshen, Erica L. 1 items
Hakkio, Craig S. 1 items
Han, Song 1 items
Hevia, Constantino 1 items
Hirose, Yasuo 1 items
Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric 1 items
Hubrich, Kirstin 1 items
Hulten, Charles R. 1 items
Iacoviello, Matteo 1 items
Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad 1 items
Jeffery, Christopher 1 items
Johannsen, Benjamin K. 1 items
Johnson, Elizabeth 1 items
Kahn, George A. 1 items
Kansas City, Federal Reserve Bank 1 items
King, Thomas B. 1 items
Kishor, N. Kundan 1 items
Knotek, Edward S. 1 items
Lacker, Jeffrey M. 1 items
Li, Canlin 1 items
Londono, Juan M. 1 items
Luo, Shaowen 1 items
Macera, Manuel 1 items
Marcet, Albert 1 items
Matthes, Christian 1 items
McGillicuddy, Joseph 1 items
McKee, Mike 1 items
Melosi, Leonardo 1 items
Mihalache, Gabriel 1 items
Mouabbi, Sarah 1 items
Mulligan, Casey B. 1 items
Mustre-del-Rio, Jose 1 items
Nie, Jun 1 items
Oksol, Amy 1 items
Orphanides, Athanasios 1 items
Plosser, Charles I. 1 items
Price, Calvin 1 items
Rappaport, Jordan 1 items
Redmond, Michael 1 items
Renne, Jean-Paul 1 items
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina 1 items
Ricketts, Lowell R. 1 items
Rodriguez, Marius del Giudice 1 items
Rogers, John H. 1 items
Schweitzer, Mark E. 1 items
Shahanaghi, Sara 1 items
Sly, Nicholas 1 items
Spewak, Andrew 1 items
Sporn, John 1 items
Sun, Bo 1 items
Tambalotti, Andrea 1 items
Topa, Giorgio 1 items
Trabandt, Mathias 1 items
Van der Klaauw, Wilbert 1 items
Velde, Francois R. 1 items
Villar Vallenas, Daniel 1 items
Waller, Christopher J. 1 items
Wei, Min 1 items
Wilcox, David W. 1 items
Wolman, Alexander L. 1 items
Yoldas, Emre 1 items
Zafar, Basit 1 items
Zakrajsek, Egon 1 items
show more (122)
show less
FILTER BY Jel Classification
E31 31 items
E52 19 items
E30 6 items
E58 5 items
E62 4 items
F34 4 items
F41 4 items
D12 3 items
D30 3 items
E2 3 items
E32 3 items
E41 3 items
E63 3 items
G15 3 items
C23 2 items
C32 2 items
D43 2 items
E01 2 items
E24 2 items
E40 2 items
E5 2 items
O3 2 items
O4 2 items
C11 1 items
C78 1 items
D1 1 items
D14 1 items
D84 1 items
E10 1 items
E2;E5 1 items
E37 1 items
E42 1 items
E43 1 items
E44 1 items
E47 1 items
E50 1 items
E51 1 items
E6 1 items
F31 1 items
G1 1 items
G50 1 items
H21 1 items
H63 1 items
I22 1 items
I23 1 items
J31 1 items
J6 1 items
J60 1 items
N16 1 items
O40 1 items
Q11 1 items
Q43 1 items
show more (47)
show less
FILTER BY Keywords
Inflation 94 items
Monetary Policy 34 items
Economic Conditions 7 items
Labor Markets 7 items
Economic Growth 7 items
COVID-19 6 items
Interest rates 6 items
Fiscal Policy 6 items
Economy 4 items
Phillips Curve 4 items
Labor market 4 items
Emerging Markets 3 items
FOMC 3 items
Inflation targeting 3 items
Search 3 items
Seigniorage 3 items
Exchange Rate 3 items
Heterogeneity 3 items
expectations 3 items
Consumer Price Index 2 items
Coronavirus 2 items
Country Risk 2 items
Crises 2 items
Default 2 items
Employment 2 items
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) 2 items
Inflation expectations 2 items
Information 2 items
Internet 2 items
Money 2 items
National Accounts 2 items
Risk 2 items
Sovereign Debt 2 items
Time-consistency 2 items
Uncertainty 2 items
Welfare 2 items
Consumer Prices 2 items
Economic outlook 2 items
Households 2 items
Money demand 2 items
Productivity 2 items
Structural Breaks 2 items
Unemployment 2 items
Wages 2 items
Zero lower bound 2 items
Anchoring of inflation expectations 1 items
Brexit 1 items
Central bank communication 1 items
Central bank independence 1 items
College Tuition 1 items
Commodities 1 items
Core and Headline 1 items
Currency Denomination 1 items
Currency in circulation 1 items
Debt 1 items
Deficits 1 items
Depreciation 1 items
Disinflation 1 items
Dynamic factor model 1 items
Education 1 items
Energy 1 items
Equilibrium indeterminacy 1 items
Equities 1 items
Equity markets 1 items
Exchange rates 1 items
Fed Funds Rate 1 items
Fed funds 1 items
Federal Open Market Committee 1 items
Federal Reserve System 1 items
Federal funds 1 items
Financial crisis 1 items
Financial stability 1 items
Fiscal and monetary interactions 1 items
Fixed production cost 1 items
Food Prices 1 items
GDP 1 items
Geopolitical risk 1 items
Globalization 1 items
Government Debt 1 items
Government budget constraint 1 items
Government size 1 items
Growth 1 items
Household Spending 1 items
Household debt 1 items
Housing 1 items
Housing rental rates 1 items
Imports 1 items
Inflation target 1 items
Interest rate 1 items
Internal rationality 1 items
International shipping 1 items
Investment 1 items
Labor 1 items
Learning 1 items
Liquidity Oil 1 items
Macroeconomic history 1 items
Markov-Switching 1 items
Matching 1 items
Mexico 1 items
Mismeasurement 1 items
Monetary policy framework 1 items
New Keynesian Phillips Curve 1 items
New monetarism 1 items
Oil prices 1 items
Owners' Equivalent Rent 1 items
PCE 1 items
Personal Consumption Expenditures 1 items
Philadelphia 1 items
Policy reforms 1 items
Price dispersion 1 items
Prices 1 items
Prices, business fluctuations, and cycles 1 items
Quantitative easing 1 items
Real estate 1 items
Recession 1 items
Regime Switching models 1 items
Small Businesses 1 items
Sovereign default 1 items
Sticky Prices 1 items
Stochastic volatility 1 items
Survey 1 items
Survey of Professional Forecasters 1 items
Surveys of professional forecasters 1 items
Taylor Rule 1 items
Term Structure of Interest Rates 1 items
Term structure of inflation expectations and inflation uncertainty 1 items
Time-varying Parameters 1 items
Time-varying transition probabilities 1 items
Trade share 1 items
Transitions 1 items
Variance risk premium 1 items
Volatility 1 items
Wealth distribution 1 items
anchor 1 items
bootstrap 1 items
cyclical 1 items
financial sector 1 items
forecasting. 1 items
gasoline price 1 items
household survey 1 items
inflation experience 1 items
job ladder 1 items
labor force 1 items
labor market slack 1 items
low income 1 items
microeconomics 1 items
misallocation 1 items
missing disinflation 1 items
oil price 1 items
policy rules 1 items
real-time forecasting 1 items
regional economy 1 items
semiparametric panel data model 1 items
series estimation 1 items
slack 1 items
transactions services 1 items
unobserved component model 1 items
show more (175)
show less