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Speech
Bank of Korea International Conference Panel Comments
Evans, Charles L. (2010-06-14)
Remarks for the Bank of Korea International Conference 2010, June 1, 2010 Seoul, Korea
Speech , Paper 41

Journal Article
Inflation Expectations Limit the Power of Negative Interest Rates
Glover, Andrew; Pollard, Emily (2020-03-25)
Both the federal funds rate and longer-run yields have dropped to near zero, renewing discussion of negative interest rate policy. Although negative rates would allow for additional cuts in the United States, negative policy rates in line with what other countries have implemented would not be able to achieve the nominal rate reduction of previous easing cycles. Moreover, inflation expectations remained flat or fell after negative rates were introduced in most countries, limiting the expansionary power of these additional rate cuts.
Economic Bulletin , Issue March 25, 2020 , Pages 4

Working Paper
Inflation at the Household Level
Kaplan, Greg; Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam (2016-04-11)
We use scanner data to estimate inflation rates at the household level. Households' inflation rates are remarkably heterogeneous, with an interquartile range of 6.2 to 9.0 percentage points on an annual basis. Most of the heterogeneity comes not from variation in broadly defined consumption bundles but from variation in prices paid for the same types of goods - a source of variation that previous research has not measured. The entire distribution of household inflation rates shifts in parallel with aggregate inflation. Deviations from aggregate inflation exhibit only slightly negative serial ...
Working Papers , Paper 731

Journal Article
Are longer-term inflation expectations stable?
Bundick, Brent; Hakkio, Craig S. (2015-03-09)
Bundick and Hakkio use survey data to evaluate the stability of forecasters' long-term inflation expectations.
Macro Bulletin

Another Benefit of Trimming: Smaller Inflation Revisions
Dolmas, Jim (2019-08-06)
With the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate, what you see in real time is closer to what you get after revision than is the case with the more conventional measure of core inflation, PCE excluding food and energy.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Inflation and the Size of Government
Han, Song; Mulligan, Casey B. (2001-11)
It is commonly supposed in public and academic discourse that inflation and big government are related. We show that economic theory delivers such a prediction only in special cases. As an empirical matter, inflation is significantly positively related to the size of government mainly when periods of war and peace are compared. We find a weak positive peacetime time series correlation between inflation and the size of government and a negative cross-country correlation of inflation with non-defense spending.
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2002-01

Report
Identifying inflation's grease and sand effects in the labor market
Groshen, Erica L.; Schweitzer, Mark E. (1997-10-01)
Inflation has been accused of causing distortionary prices and wage fluctuations (sand) as well as lauded for facilitating adjustments to shocks when wages are rigid downwards (grease). This paper investigates whether these two effects can be distinguished from each other in a labor market by the following identification strategy: inflation-induced deviations among employer's mean wage-changes represent unintended intramarket distortions (sand), while inflation-induced, inter-occupational wage-changes reflect intended alignments with intermarket forces (grease). Using a unique 40-year panel ...
Staff Reports , Paper 31

Journal Article
The Natural Rate of Interest in Taylor Rules
Fuerst, Timothy S.; Carlstrom, Charles T. (2016)
The Taylor rule suggests that the federal funds rate should be adjusted when inflation deviates from the Fed?s inflation target or when output deviates from the Fed?s estimate of potential output. Typical formulations of the rule assume that the level of the inflation-adjusted federal funds rate that is expected to prevail in the long run, sometimes thought of as the ?natural? rate of interest, is constant over time. Since this assumption is likely incorrect, we show how the Taylor rule can account for a variable natural rate by incorporating long-term productivity growth. We also show that ...
Economic Commentary , Issue March

Journal Article
Inflation targeting and revisions to inflation data: a case study with PCE inflation
Price, Calvin (2011-07)
Central banks around the world have come to recognize the importance of maintaining low and stable inflation. One widely employed tool for helping to do so is known as inflation targeting, whereby a central bank sets a numeric goal for inflation. Once this target is publicly stated, the bank can be held accountable for its actions in regard to meeting, or not meeting, this target. Countries that have adopted such a tool have generally had a favorable experience, and there is evidence that inflation targeting is correlated with increased stability in output growth, lower inflation, and more ...
Research Rap Special Report , Issue Jul

Discussion Paper
Who Is Driving the Recent Decline in Consumers Inflation Expectations?
Armantier, Olivier; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Zafar, Basit; Topa, Giorgio (2016-01-05)
The expectations of U.S. consumers about inflation have declined to record lows over the past several months. That is the finding of two leading surveys, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) and the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers (SoC). In this post, we examine whether this decline is broad-based or whether it is driven by specific demographic groups.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160105

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