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Working Paper
Consumption in the Great Recession: The Financial Distress Channel
Athreya, Kartik B.; Mather, Ryan; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose; Sanchez, Juan M. (2019-09-17)
During the Great Recession, the collapse of consumption across the U.S. varied greatly but systematically with house-price declines. We find that financial distress among U.S. households amplified the sensitivity of consumption to house-price shocks. We uncover two essential facts: (1) the decline in house prices led to an increase in household financial distress prior to the decline in income during the recession, and (2) at the zip-code level, the prevalence of financial distress prior to the recession was positively correlated with house-price declines at the onset of the recession. Using ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-25

Working Paper
Consumption in the Great Recession: The Financial Distress Channel
Athreya, Kartik B.; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose; Sanchez, Juan M.; Mather, Ryan (2019-09-11)
During the Great Recession, the collapse of consumption across the U.S. varied greatly but systematically with house-price declines. We find that financial distress among U.S. households amplified the sensitivity of consumption to house-price shocks. We uncover two essential facts: (1) the decline in house prices led to an increase in household financial distress prior to the decline in income during the recession, and (2) at the zip-code level, the prevalence of financial distress prior to the recession was positively correlated with house-price declines at the onset of the recession. Using ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 19-6

Working Paper
The Interplay Between Student Loans and Credit Card Debt: Implications for Default in the Great Recession
Ionescu, Felicia; Ionescu, Marius (2014-02-03)
We analyze the interactions between two different forms of unsecured credit and their implications for default behavior of young U.S. households. One type of credit mimics credit cards in the United States and the default option resembles a bankruptcy filing under Chapter 7; the other type of credit mimics student loans in the United States and the default option resembles Chapter 13. In the credit card market a financial intermediary offers a menu of interest rates based on individual default risk, which account for borrowing and repayment behavior in both markets. In the student loan ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-14

Discussion Paper
Developing a Narrative: the Great Recession and Its Aftermath
Sbordone, Argia M.; Tambalotti, Andrea (2014-09-24)
The severe recession experienced by the U.S. economy between December 2007 and June 2009 has given way to a disappointing recovery. It took three and a half years for GDP to return to its pre-recession peak, and by most accounts this broad measure of economic activity remains below trend today. What precipitated the U.S. economy into the worst recession since the Great Depression? And what headwinds are holding back the recovery? Are these headwinds permanent, calling for a revision of our assessment of the economy?s speed limit? Or are they transitory, although very long-lasting, as the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140924

Journal Article
What's holding back homebuilding?
Flora, Paul R. (2015-04)
Homebuilding is typically a casualty of economic downturns, but it is also true that most economic recoveries are built upon a resumption of pounding hammers and buzzing blades. Not so with the recovery from the Great Recession. After new home construction slowed dramatically in the recession, the sector not only failed to lead the overall recovery as usual but significantly lagged it. Even now that overall economic growth and employment have largely resumed growing solidly, homebuilding and construction employment levels remain far below normal in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware as ...
Regional Spotlight , Issue Q2 , Pages 1-5

Working Paper
Corporate Borrowing, Investment, and Credit Policies during Large Crises
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Ebsim, Mahdi; Kozlowski, Julian (2021-02-05)
We compare the evolution of corporate credit spreads during two large crises: the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic. These crises initially featured spread increases of similar magnitudes, but the pandemic was much more short-lived. The microdata reveal that firm leverage was a more important predictor of credit spreads during the GFC, but that firm liquidity was more important during the pandemic. In a model of the firm capital structure that is calibrated to match the joint distribution of leverage, liquidity, and credit spreads, we show that the GFC resembled a ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-035

Working Paper
Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand in the U.S. Before, During and Following the Great Recession
Cashin, David B.; Lenney, Jamie; Lutz, Byron F.; Peterman, William B. (2017-06)
We examine the effect of federal and subnational fiscal policy on aggregate demand in the U.S. by introducing the fiscal effect (FE) measure. FE can be decomposed into three components. Discretionary FE quantifies the effect of discretionary or legislated policy changes on aggregate demand. Cyclical FE captures the effect of the automatic stabilizers--changes in government taxes and spending arising from the business cycle. Residual FE measures the effect of all changes in government revenues and outlays which cannot be categorized as either discretionary or cyclical; for example, it captures ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-061

Working Paper
Opioids and the Labor Market
Aliprantis, Dionissi; Schweitzer, Mark E. (2018-05-15)
This paper finds evidence that opioid availability decreases labor force participation while a large labor market shock does not influence the share of opioid abusers. We first identify the effect of availability on participation using the geographic variation in opioid prescription rates. We use a combination of the American Community Survey (ACS) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) county-level prescription data to examine labor market patterns across both rural and metropolitan areas of the United States from 2007 to 2016. Individuals in areas with higher prescription ...
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 1807

Working Paper
Opioids and the Labor Market
Fee, Kyle; Aliprantis, Dionissi; Schweitzer, Mark E. (2019-11-15)
This paper studies the relationship between local opioid prescription rates and labor market outcomes for prime-age men and women between 2006 and 2016. We estimate the relationship at the most disaggregated level feasible in the American Community Survey in order to provide estimates that include rural areas that have, in some cases, seen particularly high prescription rates. Given the limited time period, it is particularly important to account for geographic variation in both short-term and long-term economic conditions. We estimate three panel models to control for evolving local economic ...
Working Papers , Paper 201807R2

Working Paper
How Did Young Firms Fare During the Great Recession? Evidence from the Kauffman Firm Survey
Zarutskie, Rebecca; Yang, Tiantian (2015-09-23)
We examine the evolution of several key firm economic and financial variables in the years surrounding and during the Great Recession using the Kauffman Firm Survey, a large panel of young firms founded in 2004 and surveyed for eight consecutive years. We find that these young firms experienced slower growth in revenues, employment, and assets and faced tighter financing conditions during the recessionary years. While we find some evidence that firm growth picked up following the recession, it is not clear that it returned to the levels it would have been absent the recessionary shock. We ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-85

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