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Working Paper
Opioids and the Labor Market
Schweitzer, Mark E.; Fee, Kyle; Aliprantis, Dionissi (2019-11-15)
This paper studies the relationship between local opioid prescription rates and labor market outcomes for prime-age men and women between 2006 and 2016. We estimate the relationship at the most disaggregated level feasible in the American Community Survey in order to provide estimates that include rural areas that have, in some cases, seen particularly high prescription rates. Given the limited time period, it is particularly important to account for geographic variation in both short-term and long-term economic conditions. We estimate three panel models to control for evolving local economic ...
Working Papers , Paper 18-07R2

Working Paper
FHA, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Great Recession
Sherlund, Shane M.; Passmore, Wayne (2016-04-12)
Did government mortgage programs mitigate the adverse economic effects of the financial crisis? We find that counties with greater participation in traditional government mortgage programs experienced less severe economic downturns during the Great Recession. In particular, counties with higher levels of participation in FHA, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac lending had relatively smaller increases in mortgage delinquency rates; smaller declines in purchase originations, home sales, home prices, and new automobile purchases; and smaller increases in unemployment rates. These results hold both in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-031

Report
Underemployment in the early careers of college graduates following the Great Recession
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard (2015-12-01)
Though labor market conditions steadily improved following the Great Recession, underemployment among recent college graduates continued to climb, reaching highs not seen since the early 1990s. In this paper, we take a closer look at the jobs held by underemployed college graduates in the early stages of their careers during the first few years after the Great Recession. Contrary to popular perception, we show that relatively few recent graduates were working in low-skilled service jobs, and that many of the underemployed worked in fairly well paid non-college jobs requiring some degree of ...
Staff Reports , Paper 749

Journal Article
What's holding back homebuilding?
Flora, Paul R. (2015-04)
Homebuilding is typically a casualty of economic downturns, but it is also true that most economic recoveries are built upon a resumption of pounding hammers and buzzing blades. Not so with the recovery from the Great Recession. After new home construction slowed dramatically in the recession, the sector not only failed to lead the overall recovery as usual but significantly lagged it. Even now that overall economic growth and employment have largely resumed growing solidly, homebuilding and construction employment levels remain far below normal in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware as ...
Regional Spotlight , Issue Q2 , Pages 1-5

Working Paper
Unconventional monetary policy and the behavior of shorts
McInish, Thomas H.; Neely, Christopher J.; Planchon, Jade (2021-09-30)
We investigate the behavior of shorts, considered sophisticated investors, before and after a set of Federal Reserve unconventional monetary policy announcements that spot bond markets did not fully anticipate. Short interest in agency securities systematically predicts bond price changes and other asset returns on the days of monetary announcements, particularly when growth or monetary news is released, indicating shorts correctly anticipated these surprises. Shorts also systematically rebalanced after announcements in the direction of the announcement surprise when the announcement released ...
Working Papers , Paper 2017-031

Report
Did cuts in state aid during the Great Recession lead to changes in local property taxes?
Roy, Joydeep; Livingston, Max; Chakrabarti, Rajashri (2013-10-01)
During the Great Recession and its aftermath, state and local governments? revenue streams dried up due to diminished taxes. Budget cuts affected many aspects of government; in this paper, we investigate whether (and how) local school districts modified their funding and taxing decisions in response to changes in state aid in the post-recession period. Using detailed district-level panel data from New York and a fixed effects as well as an instrumental variables strategy, we find strong evidence that school districts did indeed respond to state aid cuts in the post-recession period by ...
Staff Reports , Paper 643

Mortgage Distress during the Great Recession
Emmons, William R. (2021-05-17)
By 2009, about 10% of U.S. mortgages were either in serious delinquency—the owners missed at least three payments—or in the foreclosure process.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Credit and Liquidity Policies during Large Crises
Ebsim, Mahdi; Kozlowski, Julian; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2022-01-24)
We compare firms’ financials during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) and COVID-19. While the two crises featured similar increases in credit spreads, debt and liquid assets decreased during the GFC, but increased during COVID-19. In the cross section, leverage was the main determinant of credit spreads and investment during the GFC, but liquidity was more important during COVID-19. We augment a quantitative model of firm capital structure with a motive to hold liquid assets. The GFC resembled a combination of productivity and financial shocks, while COVID-19 also featured liquidity shocks. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-035

Speech
What kind of jobs have been created during the recovery?
Dudley, William (2014-05-21)
Remarks at the Regional Economic Press Briefing, New York City.
Speech , Paper 137

Working Paper
Realized Bank Risk during the Great Recession
Altunbas, Yener; Marques-Ibanez, David; Manganelli, Simone (2015-08-04)
In the years preceding the 2007-2009 financial crisis, forward-looking indicators of bank risk concentrated and suggested unusually low expectations of bank default. We assess whether the ex-ante (i.e. prior to the crisis) cross-sectional variability in bank characteristics is related to the ex-post (i.e. during the crisis) materialization of bank risk. Our tailor-made dataset crucially accounts for the different dimensions of realized bank risk including access to central bank liquidity during the crisis. We consistently find that less reliance on deposit funding, more aggressive credit ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1140

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