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Working Paper
The Credit Crunch and Fall in Employment during the Great Recession
Lee, Seung Jung; Stebunovs, Viktors; Haltenhof, Samuel (2014-02)
We study the existence and economic significance of bank lending channels that affect employment in U.S. manufacturing industries. In particular, we address the question of how a dramatic worsening of firm and consumer access to bank credit, such as the one observed over the Great Recession, translates into job losses in these industries. To identify these channels, we rely on differences in the degree of external finance dependence and of asset tangibility across manufacturing industries and in the sensitivity of these industries' output to changes in the supply of consumer credit. We show ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-06

Working Paper
Anatomy of Corporate Credit Spreads: The Great Recession vs. COVID-19
Ebsim, Mahdi; Kozlowski, Julian; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2020-10-09)
We compare the evolution of corporate credit spreads during the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. The two crises featured increases of similar magnitudes in the median and cross-sectional dispersion of credit spreads, but the pandemic was short-lived and different sectors were affected. The micro-data reveal larger differences between the two episodes: the Great Recession featured an increase in the across-firm dispersion, and leverage was an important predictor of credit spreads. Differently, the COVID-19 crisis displayed a larger increase in within-firm dispersion, and funding ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-035

Journal Article
Housing's Role in the Slow Recovery
Eyigungor, Burcu (2016-04)
Why did homebuilding recover so slowly after the Great Recession? Burcu Eyigungor examines some unusual supply and demand factors during the boom and bust and explores why home construction is so important to economic recoveries.
Economic Insights , Volume 1 , Issue 2 , Pages 1-6

Report
Appendix for Financial Frictions and Fluctuations in Volatility
Kehoe, Patrick J.; Bai, Yan; Arellano, Cristina (2017-01-24)
This appendix contains five sections. Section 1 provides details for the comparative statics exercise performed in the simple example. Section 2 discusses extending the model to allow firms to default on the wages for managers. Section 3 describes the firm-level and aggregate data. Section 4 contains the details of the computational algorithm. Finally, Section 5 reports the results for our model with a lower labor elasticity.
Staff Report , Paper 538

Journal Article
A closer look at the German labor market 'miracle'
Gartner, Hermann; Fujita, Shigeru (2014-10)
Compared with the steep, persistent increase in unemployment that the Great Recession triggered in the United States, its effect on unemployment in Germany was surprisingly mild. While U.S. unemployment soared from 4.8 percent to 9.5 percent between the fourth quarter of 2007 and the fourth quarter of 2010, the German unemployment rate actually fell from 7.6 percent to 6.4 percent over the same period (Figure 1).1 The marked contrast may make one wonder whether the magnitude of the recession itself was smaller in Germany. Actually, the severity of the recession as measured by the drop in ...
Business Review , Issue Q4 , Pages 16-24

Report
Dynamic prediction pools: an investigation of financial frictions and forecasting performance
Del Negro, Marco; Schorfheide, Frank; Hasegawa, Raiden B. (2014-10-01)
We provide a novel methodology for estimating time-varying weights in linear prediction pools, which we call dynamic pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, with and without financial frictions, for output growth and inflation in the period 1992 to 2011. We find strong evidence of time variation in the pool?s weights, reflecting the fact that the DSGE model with financial frictions produces superior forecasts in periods of financial distress but doesn?t perform as well in tranquil periods. The dynamic ...
Staff Reports , Paper 695

Working Paper
FHA, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Great Recession
Sherlund, Shane M.; Passmore, Wayne (2016-04-12)
Did government mortgage programs mitigate the adverse economic effects of the financial crisis? We find that counties with greater participation in traditional government mortgage programs experienced less severe economic downturns during the Great Recession. In particular, counties with higher levels of participation in FHA, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac lending had relatively smaller increases in mortgage delinquency rates; smaller declines in purchase originations, home sales, home prices, and new automobile purchases; and smaller increases in unemployment rates. These results hold both in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2016-031

Working Paper
Shrinkage estimation of high-dimensional factor models with structural instabilities
Schorfheide, Frank; Cheng, Xu; Liao, Zhipeng (2013-12-01)
In high-dimensional factor models, both the factor loadings and the number of factors may change over time. This paper proposes a shrinkage estimator that detects and disentangles these instabilities. The new method simultaneously and consistently estimates the number of pre- and post-break factors, which liberates researchers from sequential testing and achieves uniform control of the family-wise model selection errors over an increasing number of variables. The shrinkage estimator only requires the calculation of principal components and the solution of a convex optimization problem, which ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-4

Discussion Paper
Can Lessons from the Great Recession Guide Policy Responses to the Pandemic-Driven Economic Crisis?
Van Horn, Carl; Oates, Jane (2020-06-16)
In a 1948 speech to the British House of Commons, Winston Churchill warned, "Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it." As the U.S. economy struggles to reopen safely and recover, what are the lessons from the Great Recession that might help guide how policymakers respond to the pandemic-driven economic crisis?1 What should we expect over the coming months and years as the nation struggles to restore its economy, which before the pandemic had finally achieved historically low unemployment levels? In June 2020, there is much that we do not know or would even attempt to ...
Workforce Currents , Paper 2020-05

Newsletter
Helping Homeowners During the Covid-19 Pandemic: Lessons from the Great Recession
Dokko, Jane; Dynan, Karen E.; Amromin, Gene (2020-06-30)
The Covid-19 public health crisis has sharply reduced the earnings of millions of U.S. households, following the severe curtailment of economic activity needed to contain the spread of the virus. Meanwhile, households continue to confront their ongoing financial obligations. The ability of households to manage these obligations has important consequences for the speed at which the U.S. economy can recover from the current crisis. Households that are wiped out financially in the coming months will not be in a position to strongly resume spending once the virus containment issues have passed. ...
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue 443 , Pages 9

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