Mortgage Debt, Consumption, and Illiquid Housing Markets in the Great Recession

Garriga, Carlos; Hedlund, Aaron

doi:10.20955/wp.2017.030

Working Paper

Mortgage Debt, Consumption, and Illiquid Housing Markets in the Great Recession

Abstract: Using a model with housing search, endogenous credit constraints, and mortgage default, this paper accounts for the housing crash from 2006 to 2011 and its implications for aggregate and cross-sectional consumption during the Great Recession. Left tail shocks to labor market uncertainty and tighter down payment requirements emerge as the key drivers. An endogenous decline in housing liquidity amplifies the recession by increasing foreclosures, contracting credit, and depressing consumption. Balance sheets act as a transmission mechanism from housing to consumption that depends on gross portfolio positions and the leverage distribution. Low interest rate policies accelerate the recovery in housing and consumption.

Keywords: Housing; Consumption; Liquidity; Debt; Great Recession;

JEL Classification: D31; D83; E21; E22; G11; G12; G21;

https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2017.030