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Keywords:Exchange rate 

Working Paper
Can risk explain the profitability of technical trading in currency markets?

Academic studies show that technical trading rules would have earned substantial excess returns over long periods in foreign exchange markets. However, the approach to risk adjustment has typically been rather cursory. We examine the ability of a wide range of models: CAPM, quadratic CAPM, downside risk CAPM, Carhart’s 4-factor model, the C-CAPM, an extended C-CAPM with durable consumption, Lustig-Verdelhan (LV) carry-trade factor model, and models including macroeconomic factors, and foreign exchange volatility, skewness and liquidity, to explain these technical trading returns. No model ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-033

Working Paper
Can risk explain the profitability of technical trading in currency markets?

Academic studies show that technical trading rules would have earned substantial excess returns over long periods in foreign exchange markets. However, the approach to risk adjustment has typically been rather cursory. We examine the ability of a wide range of models: CAPM, quadratic CAPM, downside risk CAPM, C-CAPM, Carhart?s 4-factor model, an extended C-CAPM with durable consumption, Lustig-Verdelhan (LV) factors, volatility, skewness and liquidity to explain these technical trading returns. No model plausibly accounts for a substantial amount of technical profitability in the foreign ...
Working Papers , Paper 2014-33

Working Paper
The Global Factor in Neutral Policy Rates : Some Implications for Exchange Rates, Monetary Policy, and Policy Coordination

This paper highlights some of the theoretical and practical implications for monetary policy and exchange rates that derive specifically from the presence of a global general equilibrium factor embedded in neutral real policy rates in open economies. Using a standard two country DSGE model, we derive a structural decomposition in which the nominal exchange rate is a function of the expected present value of future neutral real interest rate differentials plus a business cycle factor and a PPP factor. Country specific ?r*? shocks in general require optimal monetary policy to pass these through ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1244

Working Paper
Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates

There has been much interest in the relationship between the price of crude oil, the value of the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. interest rate since the 1980s. For example, the sustained surge in the real price of oil in the 2000s is often attributed to the declining real value of the U.S. dollar as well as low U.S. real interest rates, along with a surge in global real economic activity. Quantifying these effects one at a time is difficult not only because of the close relationship between the interest rate and the exchange rate, but also because demand and supply shocks in the oil market in turn ...
Working Papers , Paper 1914

Working Paper
Currency Crashes and Bond Yields in Industrial Countries

This paper examines episodes of sudden large exchange rate depreciations (currency crashes) in industrial countries and characterizes the behavior of government bond yields during and after these crashes. The most important determinant of changes in bond yields appears to be inflationary expectations. When inflation is high and rising at the time of a currency crash, bond yields tend to rise. Otherwise--and in every currency crash since 1985--bond yields tend to fall. Over the past 20 years, inflation rates have been remarkably stable in industrial countries after currency crashes.
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 837

Working Paper
The Hedging Channel of Exchange Rate Determination

We document the exchange rate hedging channel that connects country-level measures of net external financial imbalances with exchange rates. In times of market distress, countries with large positive external imbalances (e.g. Japan) experience domestic currency appreciation, and crucially, forward exchange rates appreciate relatively more than the spot after adjusting for interest rate differentials. Countries with large negative foreign asset positions experience the opposite currency movements. We present a model demonstrating that exchange rate hedging coupled with intermediary constraints ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1283

Journal Article
Subsiding Headwinds from the Strong Dollar: Evidence from Producer Prices along the Supply Chain

The foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar has stabilized, and producer prices are rising, especially at early stages of the supply chain.
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