Working Paper

Currency Crashes and Bond Yields in Industrial Countries


Abstract: This paper examines episodes of sudden large exchange rate depreciations (currency crashes) in industrial countries and characterizes the behavior of government bond yields during and after these crashes. The most important determinant of changes in bond yields appears to be inflationary expectations. When inflation is high and rising at the time of a currency crash, bond yields tend to rise. Otherwise--and in every currency crash since 1985--bond yields tend to fall. Over the past 20 years, inflation rates have been remarkably stable in industrial countries after currency crashes.

Keywords: Exchange rate; Depreciation; Interest rate; Inflation;

JEL Classification: E43; F31; F41;

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File(s): File format is application/pdf https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/837/ifdp837r.pdf
Description: Revision

File(s): File format is application/pdf https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/837/ifdp837.pdf
Description: Original

Authors

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Part of Series: International Finance Discussion Papers

Publication Date: 2008-05

Number: 837

Pages: 43 pages