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Keywords:Economic conditions 

Among Opposing Forces

Remarks by Charles L. Evans, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago McLean County Chamber of Commerce, Bloomington, Illinois
Speech , Paper 19

Working Paper
Measuring productivity growth in Asia: do market imperfections matter?

Recent research reports contradictory estimates of productivity growth for the newly industrialized economies (NIEs) of Asia. In particular, estimates using real factor prices find relatively rapid TFP growth; estimates using quantities of inputs and output find relatively low TFP growth. The difference is particularly notable for Singapore, where the difference is about 2-1/4 percentage-points per year. We show that about 2/3 of that difference reflects differences in estimated capital payments. We argue that these differences reflect economically interesting imperfections in output and ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-03-15

Working Paper
Can structural small open economy models account for the influence of foreign disturbances?

This paper demonstrates that an estimated, structural, small open-economy model of the Canadian economy cannot account for the substantial influence of foreign-sourced disturbances identified in numerous reduced-form studies. The benchmark model assumes uncorrelated shocks across countries and implies that U.S. shocks account for less than 3 percent of the variability observed in several Canadian series, at all forecast horizons. Accordingly, model-implied cross-correlation functions between Canada and U.S. are essentially zero. Both findings are at odds with the data. A specification that ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-09-19

Working Paper
Adaptation and the Cost of Rising Temperature for the U.S. Economy

How costly will rising temperature due to climate change be for the U.S. economy? Recent research has used the well-identified response of output to weather to estimate this cost. But agents may adapt to the new climate. We propose a methodology to infer adaptation technology from the heterogeneous responses of output to weather observed currently across the U.S. Our model estimates how much each region has adapted already, and can predict how much each will adapt further after climate change. The size and distribution of losses from climate change vary substantially once adaptation is taken ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2020-08

Journal Article
Identifying State-Level Recessions

Economic Review , Issue Q I , Pages 85-108

Journal Article
The role of community banks in the U.S. economy

The U.S. banking system is unusual in consisting not only of some very large banks but also a large number of relatively small community banks. This bifurcated banking system in the United States has served the economy well. Over time, with regulatory change and financial innovation, large banks have become complex organizations engaged in a wide range of activities. They provide a variety of services to their customers, but often rely on hard financial information, computer models, and centralized decision-making as the basis for conducting business. In contrast, small banks have focused ...
Economic Review , Issue Q II , Pages 15-43

Journal Article
Shifts in economic geography and their causes

Recent decades have seen momentous changes in the economic geography of the world. Political transitions and economic liberalization have brought formerly closed countries into the world economy. Such changes have challenged our understanding of the location of economic activity and of the determinants of changes in the pattern of location. ; In a presentation at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City?s 2006 economic symposium, ?The New Economic Geography: Effects and Policy Implications,? Venables explored how a new economic geography perspective provides a number of additional insights ...
Economic Review , Volume 91 , Issue Q IV , Pages 61-85

Expansion picks up steam

Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Feb

Economic trends and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index

This article discusses an experimental methodology for the Chicago Fed National Activity Index?a monthly index designed to gauge overall economic activity and inflationary pressure. The goal is to see how well it accounts for recent structural changes in the U.S. economy.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue May

Economic Outlook Symposium: summary of 2011 results and 2012 forecasts

According to participants in the Chicago Fed?s annual Economic Outlook Symposium, the U.S. economy is forecasted to grow at a pace below its historical average in 2012, following a year with an even slower rate of growth; inflation is expected to ease in 2012; and the unemployment rate is predicted to edge down this year.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Feb



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