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Working Paper
Unemployment Insurance during a Pandemic
Nie, Jun; Xie, Zoe (2020-08-06)
The CARES Act implemented in response to the COVID-19 crisis dramatically increased the generosity of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits, triggering concerns about substantial effects on unemployment. This paper combines a labor market search-matching model with the SIR-type infection dynamics to study the effects of the CARES Act UI on both unemployment and infection. More generous UI policies create work disincentives and lead to higher unemployment but also reduce infection and save lives. Economic shutdown policies further amplify these effects of UI policies. Quantitatively, the CARES ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 20-07

Journal Article
The recession of 2001 and unemployment insurance financing
Vroman, Wayne (2005-08)
Although the economic downturn of 2001 was one of the mildest of the past fifty years, between 2002-04, several large states experienced difficulties financing their unemployment insurance (UI) programs. Vroman discusses the recession's effects on states experiencing UI funding problems and the borrowing options available when state trust fund reserves are inadequate. Among his findings, Vroman concludes that all of the states that had to borrow had low trust fund balances at the end of December 2000-just before the recession began-and that funding problems have been concentrated among the ...
Economic Policy Review , Issue Aug , Pages 61-79

Journal Article
If you lost your job …
Clement, Douglas (2006-06)
Intuition and conventional economic models suggest that unemployment benefits should decline over time to induce unemployed workers to seek jobs.
The Region , Volume 20 , Issue Jun , Pages 34-37, 50-53

Journal Article
Unemployment in Canada and the United States: the role of unemployment insurance benefits
Moorthy, Vivek (1989-01)
Quarterly Review , Volume 14 , Issue Win , Pages 48-61

Working Paper
Using the Eye of the Storm to Predict the Wave of Covid-19 UI Claims
Seo, Boyoung; Butters, R. Andrew; Aaronson, Daniel; Brave, Scott A.; Sacks, Daniel (2020-04-16)
We leverage an event-study research design focused on the seven costliest hurricanes to hit the US mainland since 2004 to identify the elasticity of unemployment insurance filings with respect to search intensity. Applying our elasticity estimate to the state-level Google Trends indexes for the topic “unemployment,” we show that out-of-sample forecasts made ahead of the official data releases for March 21 and 28 predicted to a large degree the extent of the Covid-19 related surge in the demand for unemployment insurance. In addition, we provide a robust assessment of the uncertainty ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2020-10

Working Paper
Consumer Bankruptcy and Unemployment Insurance
Legal, Diego; Young, Eric (2024-05-07)
We quantitatively evaluate the effects of UI on bankruptcy in an equilibrium model of labor market search and defaultable debt. First, we ask whether a standard unsecured credit model extended with labor market search and matching frictions can account for the negative correlation between UI caps and bankruptcy rates observed in the data. The model can account for this fact only if estimated with the employment rate among bankruptcy filers as a target. Not matching this employment rate underestimates the consumption smoothing benefits of UI cap increases, as the model assigns too much ...
Working Papers , Paper 24-09

Working Paper
A Quantitative Theory of Time-Consistent Unemployment Insurance
Pei, Yun; Xie, Zoe (2016-11-01)
During recessions, the U.S. government substantially increases the duration of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits through multiple extensions. This paper seeks to understand the incentives driving these increases. Because of the trade-off between insurance and job search incentives, the classic time-inconsistency problem arises. During recessions, the U.S. government substantially increases the duration of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits through multiple extensions. This paper seeks to understand the incentives driving these extensions. Because of the trade-off between insurance and ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2016-11

Journal Article
Rethinking the value of initial claims as a forecasting tool
McConnell, Margaret M. (1998-11)
The weekly numbers on initial claims for unemployment insurance convey key information about the labor market. But how reliable are claims in predicting changes in the much anticipated monthly employment report? According to a simple forecasting model, claims consistently send an accurate signal about employment during recessions but not during expansions.
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 4 , Issue Nov

Journal Article
Preparing Unemployment Insurance for a Downturn: The Carolinas
Kaglic, Richard E. (2017-07)
In the aftermath of the Great Recession, the United States saw unemployment rates rise to levels it had not seen since the early 1980s as employers shed workers by the millions. Workers who had lost their jobs could not find other work and flooded into unemployment offices around the nation applying for benefits to ease the shock to their household income. Unemployment insurance claims and payouts soared, straining programs from coast to coast.
Econ Focus , Issue 3Q , Pages 32-35

Working Paper
Labor Market Responses to Unemployment Insurance: The Role of Heterogeneity
Birinci, Serdar; See, Kurt (2021-03)
We document considerable scope of heterogeneity within the unemployed, especially when the unemployed are divided along eligibility and receipt of unemployment insurance (UI). We develop a heterogeneous-agent job-search model capable of matching the wealth and income differences that distinguish UI recipients from non-recipients. Labor market responses to UI changes are non-monotonic in wealth because the poorest individuals exhibit weak responses due to the high value they attribute to employment. Differential elasticities imply that the extent to which structural models account for the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-022

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