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Working Paper
Earnings Shocks and Stabilization During COVID-19
Larrimore, Jeff; Mortenson, Jacob; Splinter, David (2021-08-02)
This paper documents the magnitude and distribution of U.S. earnings changes during the COVID-19 pandemic and how fiscal relief offset lost earnings. We build panels from administrative tax data to measure annual earnings changes. The frequency of earnings declines during the pandemic were similar to the Great Recession, but the distribution was very different. In 2020, workers starting in the bottom half of the distribution were more likely to experience large annual earnings declines and a similar share of male and female workers had large earnings declines. While most workers experiencing ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2021-052

Working Paper
Unemployment Insurance when the Wealth Distribution Matters
Piguillem, Facundo; Trachter, Nicholas; Ruffo, Hernan (2023-06)
This paper analyzes the welfare effects of unemployment insurance in a life-cycle model, focusing on partial vs. general equilibrium effects. We study an OLG economy with learning-by-doing human capital accumulation. Agents can be employed or unemployed. While unemployed agents costly search for new jobs. We calibrate the model to the U.S. economy, and find that replacement ratio and potential duration are close to the current one. But, in contrast with the previous literature, we find that the optimal policies under general and partial equilibrium are almost the same. Through a series of ...
Working Paper , Paper 23-08

Working Paper
Optimal Unemployment Insurance Requirements
de Souza, Gustavo; Luduvice, Andre (2022-04-01)
In the U.S., workers must satisfy two requirements to receive unemployment insurance (UI): a tenure requirement of a minimum work spell and a monetary requirement of a past minimum earnings. Using discontinuity of UI rules at state borders, we find that the monetary requirement decreases the number of employers and the share of part-time workers, while the tenure requirement has the opposite effect. In a quantitative model, the monetary requirement induce workers to search longer because low paying jobs are not covered by UI. Since it mitigates moral hazard, the optimal UI design has a high ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2022-45

Working Paper
Income in the Off-Season: Household Adaptation to Yearly Work Interruptions
Price, Brendan M.; Coglianese, John M. (2020-10-07)
Joblessness is highly seasonal. To analyze how households adapt to seasonal joblessness, we introduce a measure of seasonal work interruptions premised on the idea that a seasonal worker will tend to exit employment around the same time each year. We show that an excess share of prime-age US workers experience recurrent separations spaced exactly 12 months apart. These separations coincide with aggregate seasonal downturns and are concentrated in seasonally volatile industries. Examining workers most prone to seasonal work interruptions, we find that these workers incur large earnings losses ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-084

Working Paper
The Implications of Labor Market Heterogeneity on Unemployment Insurance Design
Birinci, Serdar; See, Kurt (2024-09-29)
We digitize state-level and time-varying unemployment insurance (UI) laws on initial eligibility, payment amount, and payment duration and combine them with microdata on labor market outcomes to estimate UI eligibility, take-up, and replacement rates at the individual level. We document how levels of income and wealth affect unemployment risk, eligibility,take-up, and replacement rates both upon job loss and over the course of unemployment spells. We evaluate whether these empirical findings are important for shaping UI policy design using a general equilibrium incomplete markets model ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-026

Journal Article
Which States Are Driving U.S. Employment Growth?
Dupor, Bill (2021-10-15)
The 2020 CARES Act expanded unemployment insurance benefits for many, but states that opted out early boosted how much they contributed to employment gains.
The Regional Economist

Working Paper
Consumer Bankruptcy and Unemployment Insurance
Legal, Diego; Young, Eric (2024-05-07)
We quantitatively evaluate the effects of UI on bankruptcy in an equilibrium model of labor market search and defaultable debt. First, we ask whether a standard unsecured credit model extended with labor market search and matching frictions can account for the negative correlation between UI caps and bankruptcy rates observed in the data. The model can account for this fact only if estimated with the employment rate among bankruptcy filers as a target. Not matching this employment rate underestimates the consumption smoothing benefits of UI cap increases, as the model assigns too much ...
Working Papers , Paper 24-09

Working Paper
How Should Unemployment Insurance Vary over the Business Cycle?
Birinci, Serdar; See, Kurt (2019-01-01)
We study optimal unemployment insurance (UI) over the business cycle using a tractable heterogeneous agent job that features labor productivity driven business cycles and incomplete asset markets, and find that UI policy should be countercyclical. In this framework, besides providing consumption insurance upon job loss, generous UI payments allow individuals to maintain similar consumption levels even during recessions, when they would otherwise have had to accumulate savings by reducing consumption.Moreover, the presence of borrowing constrains disciplines the unemployed's job search ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-022

Expected U.S. Macroeconomic Performance during the Pandemic Adjustment Period
Bullard, James B. (2020-03-23)
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard recommends declaring a “National Pandemic Adjustment Period” and discusses three broad goals of macroeconomic policy during this period.
On the Economy

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