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Working Paper
The City Paradox: Skilled Services and Remote Work
Althoff, Lukas; Ganapati, Sharat; Walsh, Conor; Eckert, Fabian (2020-12-03)
Large cities in the US are the most expensive places to live. Paradoxically, this cost is paid disproportionately by workers who could work remotely, and live anywhere. The greater potential for remote work in large cities is mostly accounted for by their specialization in skill- and information-intensive service industries. We highlight that this specialization makes these cities vulnerable to remote work shocks. When high-skill workers begin to work from home or leave the city altogether, they withdraw spending from local consumer service industries that rely heavily on their demand. As a ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 43

Working Paper
Revisiting Adam Smith and the Division of Labor: New Evidence from U.S. Occupational Data, 1860–1940
Carollo, Nicholas A.; Cohen, Elior; Huang, Jingyi (2025-09-03)
Using novel occupational data from the United States between 1860 and 1940, we evaluate Adam Smith’s core propositions regarding the division of labor, market size, innovation, and productivity. We document significant growth in occupational diversity during this period using new measures of labor specialization that we construct from workers’ self-reported job titles in the decennial census. Consistent with Smith’s hypotheses, we find strong empirical evidence that labor specialization increases with the extent of the market, is facilitated by technological innovation, and is ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 25-08

Working Paper
Technological Change and Financial Innovation in Banking: Some Implications for Fintech
White, Lawrence J.; Frame, W. Scott; Wall, Larry D. (2018-10-01)
Financial intermediation has changed dramatically over the past 30 years, due in large part to technological change. The paper first describes the role of the financial system in a modern economy and how technological change and financial innovation can affect social welfare. We then survey the empirical literatures relating to several specific financial innovations, broadly categorized as new production processes, new products or services, or new organizational forms. In each case, we also include examples of significant fintech innovations that are transforming various aspects of banking. ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2018-11

Working Paper
Technology and the Task Content of Jobs across the Development Spectrum
Keller, Elisa; Shin, Yongseok; Caunedo, Julieta (2022-09-29)
The tasks workers perform on the job are informative about the direction and the impact of technological change. We harmonize occupational task content measures between two worker-level surveys, which separately cover developing and developed countries. Developing countries use routine-cognitive tasks and routine-manual tasks more intensively than developed countries, but less intensively use non-routine analytical tasks and non-routine interpersonal tasks. This is partly because developing countries have more workers in occupations with high routine contents and fewer workers in occupations ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-035

Working Paper
Technological innovation in mortgage underwriting and the growth in credit, 1985–2015
Foote, Christopher L.; Loewenstein, Lara; Willen, Paul S. (2019-11-01)
The application of information technology to finance, or ?fintech,? is expected to revolutionize many aspects of borrowing and lending in the future, but technology has been reshaping consumer and mortgage lending for many years. During the 1990s, computerization allowed mortgage lenders to reduce loan-processing times and largely replace human-based assessments of credit risk with default predictions generated by sophisticated empirical models. Debt-to-income ratios at origination add little to the predictive power of these models, so the new automated underwriting systems allowed higher ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-11

Working Paper
The Nature of Technological Change 1960-2016
Cavounidis, Costas; Dicandia, Vittoria; Lang, Kevin; Malhotra, Raghav (2024-11-26)
We present a unified technological explanation of both the movement of workers across jobs using different skills and the changes in skill use within jobs. An envelope-theorem approach allows us to estimate relative skill-productivity growth from worker mobility using OLS while making minimal assumptions on each occupation's production function. Using six decades of data, we conclude that routine-cognitive- and finger-dexterity-skill productivity grew rapidly and abstract- and social-skill productivity grew slowly - a form of "skill bias." These effects, along with our estimated relationships ...
Working Papers , Paper 24-28

Working Paper
Is the AI Boom Volatility-Biased Technological Change?
Munoz Henao, Juan David; Sly, Nicholas (2026-08-13)
We show that AI technologies are oriented toward jobs and workers that typically exhibit greater volatility in labor market outcomes over the business cycle. Occupations currently most exposed to AI are those that have historically exhibited (i) greater volatility in employment levels over business cycles, (ii) higher job-switching rates by workers, (iii) higher job-finding rates, and (iv) a lower likelihood for workers to exit the labor force following a job loss. The sectors of the U.S. economy that produce AI technologies have also historically exhibited high volatility in productivity. We ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 26-06

Newsletter
Automation and the Minimum Wage
Wolla, Scott A.; Burton, F. Mindy (2021-11-01)
This issue explains how a higher mandated minimum wage may lead some firms to substitute capital for labor, likely reducing job opportunities.
Page One Economics Newsletter

Working Paper
Capital-Task Complementarity and the Decline of the U.S. Labor Share of Income
Orak, Musa (2017-03)
This paper provides evidence that shifts in the occupational composition of the U.S. workforce are the most important factor explaining the trend decline in the labor share over the past four decades. Estimates suggest that while there is unitary elasticity between equipment capital and non-routine tasks, equipment capital and routine tasks are highly substitutable. Through the lenses of a general equilibrium model with occupational choice and the estimated production technology, I document that the fall in relative price of equipment capital alone can explain 72 percent of the observed ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1200

Analyzing the Impact of Programming Skills on Career Outcomes of Software Engineers
de Souza, Gustavo; Mannion, Jack (2025-02)
The most asked question in any computer science forum is “Which programming language is the best?.” Searching this question on Google yields more than 8 billion results. Reddit alone shows over 19 million results. Another way to ask this question is: Which programming language leads to better career outcomes?
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