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Working Paper
Mapping Heat in the U.S. Financial System
Palumbo, Michael G.; Lee, Seung Jung; Warusawitharana, Missaka; Aikman, David; Kiley, Michael T. (2015-06-24)
We provide a framework for assessing the build-up of vulnerabilities in the U.S. financial system. We collect forty-four indicators of financial and balance-sheet conditions, cutting across measures of valuation pressures, nonfinancial borrowing, and financial-sector health. We place the data in economic categories, track their evolution, and develop an algorithmic approach to monitoring vulnerabilities that can complement the more judgmental approach of most official-sector organizations. Our approach picks up rising imbalances in the U.S. financial system through the mid-2000s, presaging ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2015-59

Report
Liquidity policies and systemic risk
Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina (2014-12-01)
The growth of wholesale-funded credit intermediation has motivated liquidity regulations. We analyze a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which liquidity and capital regulations interact with the supply of risk-free assets. In the model, the endogenously time-varying tightness of liquidity and capital constraints generates intermediaries? leverage cycle, influencing the pricing of risk and the level of risk in the economy. Our analysis focuses on liquidity policies? implications for household welfare. Within the context of our model, liquidity requirements are preferable to ...
Staff Reports , Paper 661

Discussion Paper
Liquidity Policies and Systemic Risk
Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina (2014-04-17)
One of the most innovative and potentially far-reaching consequences of regulatory reform since the financial crisis has been the development of liquidity regulations for the banking system. While bank regulation traditionally focuses on requiring a minimum amount of capital, liquidity requirements impose a minimum amount of liquid assets. In this post, we provide a conceptual framework that allows us to evaluate the impact of liquidity requirements on economic growth, the creation of systemic risk, and household welfare. Importantly, the framework addresses both liquidity requirements and ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140417

Report
The minimum balance at risk: a proposal to mitigate the systemic risks posed by money market funds
Cipriani, Marco; Holscher, Michael; Martin, Antoine; McCabe, Patrick E. (2012-07-01)
This paper introduces a proposal for money market fund (MMF) reform that could mitigate systemic risks arising from these funds by protecting shareholders, such as retail investors, who do not redeem quickly from distressed funds. Our proposal would require that a small fraction of each MMF investor's recent balances, called the "minimum balance at risk" (MBR), be demarcated to absorb losses if the fund is liquidated. Most regular transactions in the fund would be unaffected, but redemptions of the MBR would be delayed for thirty days. A key feature of the proposal is that large redemptions ...
Staff Reports , Paper 564

Report
Discussion of “Systemic Risk and the Solvency-Liquidity Nexus of Banks”
Adrian, Tobias (2015-04-01)
Pierret (2015) presents empirical analysis of the solvency-liquidity nexus for the banking system, documenting that a shock to the level of banks? solvency risk is followed by lower short-term debt. Conversely, higher short-term debt Granger-causes higher solvency risk. These results point toward a tight interaction between solvency and liquidity risk over time. My comments are threefold. First, I suggest improving the identification of shocks in Pierret?s vector autoregressive setup. Second, I caution against using the quantitative results as the basis for setting policy. Third, I recommend ...
Staff Reports , Paper 722

Discussion Paper
Magnifying the Risk of Fire Sales in the Tri-Party Repo Market
Chakrian, Vic; Davis, Isaac; Copeland, Adam; Alkan, Leyla; Martin, Antoine (2013-07-17)
The fragility inherent in the tri-party repo market came to light during the 2008-09 financial crisis. One of the main vulnerabilities is the risk of fire sales, which can be enhanced by the response of some investors to stress events. Money market mutual funds (MMFs) and the agents investing cash collateral obtained from securities lending (SLs) are thought to behave, in times of stress, in ways that exacerbate fire-sale risks in the tri-party repo market. Based on detailed investor data, we find that MMFs and SLs constitute almost half of the investor market, making it crucial for tri-party ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20130717

Report
Systemic Cyber Risk
Baker, Steven D.; Lee, Michael Junho (2026-02-01)
We propose a quantitative framework to track systemic risk arising from cyber vulnerabilities of the U.S. financial system. Synthesizing financial, economic, cyber, and network data that covers thousands of financial institutions and technological firms, we develop an index that tracks financial-system-level cyber vulnerability (SCV) for the financial system. Geopolitical risk, ransomware and malware incidents, and seasonal factors significantly drive the estimated adversarial component. Estimated technological and financial components exhibit fat tails in the distribution. In the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1186

Report
The Financial Stability Implications of Digital Assets
Azar, Pablo; Baughman, Garth; Carapella, Francesca; Gerszten, Jacob; Lubis, Arazi; Perez-Sangimino, JP; Rappoport, David E.; Scotti, Chiara; Swem, Nathan; Vardoulakis, Alexandros; Werman, Aurite (2022-09-01)
The value of assets in the digital ecosystem has grown rapidly amid periods of high volatility. Does the digital financial system create new potential challenges to financial stability? This paper explores this question using the Federal Reserve’s framework for analyzing vulnerabilities in the traditional financial system. The digital asset ecosystem has recently proven itself to be highly fragile. However, adverse digital asset market shocks have had limited spillovers to the traditional financial system. Currently, the digital asset ecosystem does not provide significant financial ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1034

Discussion Paper
Are Nonbank Financial Institutions Systemic?
Fernandez, Andres; Hiti, Martin; Sarkar, Asani (2024-10-01)
Recent events have heightened awareness of systemic risk stemming from nonbank financial sectors. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, liquidity demand from nonbank financial entities caused a “dash for cash” in financial markets that required government support. In this post, we provide a quantitative assessment of systemic risk in the nonbank sectors. Even though these sectors have heterogeneous business models, ranging from insurance to trading and asset management, we find that their systemic risk has common variation, and this commonality has increased over time. Moreover, ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20241001

Report
Where Do Banks End and NBFIs Begin?
Acharya, Viral V.; Cetorelli, Nicola; Tuckman, Bruce (2024-09-01)
In recent years, assets of nonbank financial intermediaries (NBFIs) have grown significantly relative to those of banks. These two sectors are commonly viewed either as operating in parallel, performing different activities, or as substitutes, performing substantially similar activities, with banks inside and NBFIs outside the perimeter of banking regulation. We argue instead that NBFI and bank businesses and risks are so interwoven that they are better described as having transformed over time, rather than as having migrated from banks to NBFIs. These transformations are at least in part a ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1119

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