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Journal Article
Risk of Business Insolvency during Coronavirus Crisis
Kwan, Simon H.; Friesenhahn, Sophia M. (2020-10-05)
Many businesses had amassed high levels of debt, or leverage, before the COVID-19 pandemic. Out of precaution or necessity, firms increased their borrowing further after the onset. Although the shock to those firms’ value significantly increased their risk, measured by their distance-to-default, the default risk remains relatively small for most corporate debt. Nevertheless, the amount of outstanding liabilities among firms with elevated risk of insolvency is more than two times higher than at the peak of the global financial crisis.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 30 , Pages 01-05

Discussion Paper
Financial Intermediaries and Pressures on International Capital Flows
Goldberg, Linda S.; Hirschhorn, Samantha (2025-09-22)
Global factors, like monetary policy rates from advanced economies and risk conditions, drive fluctuations in volumes of international capital flows and put pressure on exchange rates. The components of international capital flows that are described as global liquidity—consisting of cross-border bank lending and financing of issuance of international debt securities—have sensitivities to risk conditions that have evolved considerably over time. This risk sensitivity has been driven, in part, by the composition and business models of the financial institutions involved in funding. In this ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250922

Working Paper
Trade Risk and Food Security
Leibovici, Fernando; Adamopoulos, Tasso (2024-02)
We study the role of international trade risk for food security, the patterns of production and trade across sectors, and its implications for policy. We document that food import dependence across countries is associated with higher food insecurity, particularly in low-income countries. We provide causal evidence on the role of trade risk for food security by exploiting the exogeneity of the Ukraine-Russia war as a major trade disruption limiting access to imports of critical food products. Using micro-level data from Ethiopia, we empirically show that districts relatively more exposed to ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-004

Working Paper
Why Have Interest Rates Fallen Far Below the Return on Capital
Marx, Magali; Velde, Francois R.; Mojon, Benoit (2018-01-25)
Risk-free rates have been falling since the 1980s while the return on capital has not. We analyze these trends in a calibrated OLG model with recursive preferences, designed to encompass many of the "usual suspects'' cited in the debate on secular stagnation. Declining labor force and productivity growth imply a limited decline in real interest rates and deleveraging cannot account for the joint decline in the risk free rate and increase in the risk premium. If we allow for a change in the (perceived) risk to productivity growth to fit the data, we find that the decline in the risk-free rate ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2018-1

Community Banking Conference Highlights Risks Industry Faces
White, Carl (2024-01-18)
Risk in its various forms and how it is evaluated was a prominent theme at a fall gathering of academics, bankers and regulators. A blog post summarizes some key findings presented.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Foreign Investment, Regulatory Arbitrage, and the Risk of U.S. Banking Organizations
Mihov, Atanas; Frame, W. Scott; Sanz, Leandro (2017-03-01)
This study investigates the implications of cross-country differences in banking regulation and supervision for the international subsidiary locations and risk of U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs). We find that U.S. BHCs are more likely to operate subsidiaries in countries with weaker regulation and supervision and that such location decisions are associated with elevated BHC risk and higher contribution to systemic risk. The quality of BHCs? internal controls and risk management play an important role in these location choices and risk outcomes. Overall, our study suggests that U.S. banking ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2017-2

Working Paper
International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters
Owyang, Michael T.; Coroneo, Laura; Jackson, Laura E. (2020-03-27)
We examine international stock return comovements of country-industry portfolios. Our model allows comovements to be driven by a global and a cluster component, with the cluster membership endogenously determined. Results indicate that country-industry portfolios tend to cluster mainly within geographical areas that can include one or more countries. The cluster compositions substantially changed over time, with the emergence of clusters among European countries from the early 2000s. The cluster component was the main driver of country-industry portfolio returns for most of the sample, except ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-038

Working Paper
Risk Management for Monetary Policy Near the Zero Lower Bound
Gourio, Francois; Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Krane, Spencer D.; Evans, Charles L. (2015-05-21)
As projections have inflation heading back toward target and the labor market continuing to improve, the Federal Reserve has begun to contemplate an increase in the federal funds rate. There is however substantial uncertainty around these projections. How should this uncertainty affect monetary policy? In many standard models uncertainty has no effect. In this paper, we demonstrate that the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates implies that the central bank should adopt a looser policy when there is uncertainty. In the current context this result implies that a delayed liftoff is ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-2015-3

Speech
When the Map No Longer Matches the Terrain
Nistor, Mihaela (2025-06-04)
Remarks at the XLoD Global – New York Conference, New York City.
Speech

Journal Article
Climate Risk and the Fed: Preparing for an Uncertain Certainty
Daly, Mary C. (2021-06-28)
While the severity and scope of a changing climate remains unclear, the consensus is that it poses a significant risk to the global economy and financial system. As monetary policymakers, the Fed’s job is to navigate this uncertainty by anticipating the potential changes and understanding their implications.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2021 , Issue 17 , Pages 08

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