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Discussion Paper
Who’s Ready to Spend? Constrained Consumption across the Income Distribution
Dam, David; Melcangi, Davide; Pilossoph, Laura; Schirmer, Will (2021-05-13)
Spending on goods and services that were constrained during the pandemic is expected to grow at a fast pace as the economy reopens. In this post, we look at detailed spending data to track which consumption categories were the most constrained by the pandemic due to social distancing. We find that, in 2019, high-income households typically spent relatively more on these pandemic-constrained goods and services. Our findings suggest that these consumers may have strongly reduced consumption during the pandemic and will likely play a crucial role in unleashing pent-up demand when pandemic ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210513b

Speech
A Return to Operating with Abundant Reserves
Logan, Lorie (2020-12-01)
Remarks before the Money Marketeers of New York University (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Journal Article
Pandemic-Era Liquid Wealth Is Running Dry
Abdelrahman, Hamza; Oliveira, Luiz E.; Shapiro, Adam Hale (2024-08-12)
Households accumulated more liquid assets beginning in 2020 than would have been expected without the pandemic. These “extra” liquid assets have dissipated, but their evolution has differed significantly by income group. While middle- and lower-income households hold substantially less liquid wealth than implied by pre-pandemic projections, the level for higher-income households remains close to its pre-pandemic path. Over the same period, credit card delinquency rates initially dropped and, more recently, have steadily risen as pandemic-era liquid wealth was depleted, especially for ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 21 , Pages 6

Discussion Paper
High and Dry: Banking Deserts Increased in the Fifth District During the Pandemic
Carpenter, Surekha; Dureja, Disha; Pradhan, Avani (2024-08-22)
The number of U.S. bank branches has been shrinking for years, but the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the rate of closures. After the Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994 allowed banks to open branches across state lines, branch networks spread steadily across the country. That expansion continued until the Great Recession, after which banks moved from growing their physical footprints to increasing their automated services, like ATMs and online banking.
Regional Matters

Journal Article
Out of the Office, Into a Financial Crisis?
Sablik, Timothy (2023-04)
For decades, the office has offered an alternative to the manual labor that defined work for most of human history. But it came with its own set of headaches for workers.Those headaches have provided fuel for movies like Office Space and The Devil Wears Prada and TV shows like Severance and The Office. The COVID-19 pandemic gave many Americans the chance to live out their dreams of escaping their commutes and the annoyances of the modern workplace. In the initial months of the pandemic in 2020, most offices shut down. More than 60 percent of all paid full days were worked from home.
Econ Focus , Volume 23 , Issue 2Q , Pages 4-7

Speech
Good Day Sunshine
Williams, John C. (2021-06-21)
Remarks at Midsize Bank Coalition of America (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Discussion Paper
A New Barometer of Global Supply Chain Pressures
Noble, Adam I.; Benigno, Gianluca; Groen, Jan J. J.; di Giovanni, Julian (2022-01-04)
Supply chain disruptions have become a major challenge for the global economy since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Factory shutdowns (particularly in Asia) and widespread lockdowns and mobility restrictions have resulted in disruptions across logistics networks, increases in shipping costs, and longer delivery times. Several measures have been used to gauge these disruptions, although those measures tend to focus on selected dimensions of global supply chains. In this post, we propose a new gauge, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), which integrates a number of commonly used ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220104

Discussion Paper
The Disproportionate Effects of COVID-19 on Households with Children
Armantier, Olivier; Koşar, Gizem; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Pomerantz, Rachel (2020-08-13)
A growing body of evidence points to large negative economic and health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on low-income, Black, and Hispanic Americans (see this LSE post and reports by Pew Research and Harvard). Beyond the consequences of school cancellations and lost social interactions, there exists considerable concern about the long-lasting effects of economic hardship on children. In this post, we assess the extent of the underlying economic and financial strain faced by households with children living at home, using newly collected data from the monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200813

Discussion Paper
Black and White Differences in the Labor Market Recovery from COVID-19
Dam, David; Gaur, Meghana; Karahan, Fatih; Pilossoph, Laura; Schirmer, Will (2021-02-09)
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the various measures put in place to contain it caused a rapid deterioration in labor market conditions for many workers and plunged the nation into recession. The unemployment rate increased dramatically during the COVID recession, rising from 3.5 percent in February to 14.8 percent in April, accompanied by an almost three percentage point decline in labor force participation. While the subsequent labor market recovery in the aggregate has exceeded even some of the most optimistic scenarios put forth soon after this dramatic rise, the recovery has been ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210209c

Working Paper
Can Pandemic-Induced Job Uncertainty Stimulate Automation?
Liu, Zheng; Leduc, Sylvain (2020-05-07)
The COVID-19 pandemic has raised concerns about the future of work. The pandemic may become recurrent, necessitating repeated adoptions of social distancing measures (voluntary or mandatory), creating substantial uncertainty about worker productivity. But robots are not susceptible to the virus. Thus, pandemic-induced job uncertainty may boost the incentive for automation. However, elevated uncertainty also reduces aggregate demand and reduces the value of new investment in automation. We assess the importance of automation in driving business cycle dynamics following an increase in job ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-19

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