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Working Paper
The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23
Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing (2021-11-19)
Predictions of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel during the winter of 2021/22 have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil scenario of the type discussed by many observers, would only briefly raise monthly headline inflation, before fading rather quickly. However, the short-run effects on headline inflation would be sizable. For example, on a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation would increase by 1.8 percentage points at the end of 2021 under this scenario, but only ...
Working Papers , Paper 2116

Working Paper
The Distributional Effects of COVID-19 and Mitigation Policies
Hur, Sewon (2020-09-02)
This paper develops a quantitative life cycle model in which economic decisions impact the spread of COVID-19 and, conversely, the virus affects economic decisions. The calibrated model is used to measure the welfare costs of the pandemic across the age, income and wealth distribution and to study the effectiveness of various mitigation policies. In the absence of mitigation, young workers engage in too much economic activity relative to the social optimum, leading to higher rates of infection and death in the aggregate. The paper considers a subsidy-and-tax policy that imposes a tax on ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 400

Discussion Paper
Spending Down Pandemic Savings Is an “Only-in-the-U.S.” Phenomenon
Klitgaard, Thomas; Higgins, Matthew (2023-10-11)
Household saving soared in the United States and other high-income economies during the pandemic, as consumers cut back on spending while government policies supported incomes. More recently, saving behavior has diverged, with the U.S. saving rate dropping below its pre-pandemic average while saving rates elsewhere have remained above their pre-pandemic averages. As a result, U.S. consumers have been spending down the “excess savings” built up during the pandemic while the excess savings abroad remain untapped. This divergent behavior helps explain why U.S. GDP has returned to its ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20231011

Speech
The Economic Outlook: Getting Back to "More Like Normal"
Williams, John C. (2021-02-25)
Remarks at One Hundred Black Men of New York (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Speech
An Update on the Economy and the Main Street Lending Program
Rosengren, Eric S. (2020-06-19)
Today I would like to speak with you about the pandemic, its effects on the economy, the implications for Federal Reserve policymaking, and some of the steps that the Fed is taking to address the crisis and mitigate its financial impact on American households and businesses.
Speech

Journal Article
The Rural Nursing Shortage
Sablik, Timothy (2022-01)
During the pandemic, policymakers and reporters have focused on the number of available hospital beds as a measure of the health system's capacity to deal with COVID-19 infections. But those beds don't matter very much without medical staff — doctors, nurses, and other trained specialists — to treat the patients in them. And after nearly two years on the front lines of the pandemic, health care workers are stretched thin.
Econ Focus , Issue 1Q , Pages 4-7

Discussion Paper
Racial and Income Gaps in Consumer Spending following COVID-19
Avtar, Ruchi; Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Pinkovskiy, Maxim L.; Topa, Giorgio (2021-05-13)
This post is the first in a two-part series that seeks to understand whether consumer spending patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic evolved differentially across counties by race and income. As the pandemic hit and social distancing restrictions were put into place in March 2020, consumer spending plummeted. Subsequently, as social distancing restrictions began to be relaxed later in spring 2020, consumer spending started to rebound. We find that higher-income counties had a considerably steeper decline and a shallower recovery than low-income counties did. The differences by race were also ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210513a

Discussion Paper
The Official Sector’s Response to the Coronavirus Pandemic and Moral Hazard
Kovner, Anna; Martin, Antoine (2020-09-24)
Any time the Federal Reserve or the official sector more broadly provides support to the economy during a crisis, the intervention raises concerns related to moral hazard. Moral hazard can occur when market participants do not bear the negative consequences of the risks they take. This lack of consequences can encourage even greater risks, due to the expectation of future government help. In this post, we consider the potential for moral hazard stemming from the official sector’s response to the coronavirus pandemic and explain why moral hazard concerns were likely more severe in 2008.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200924

Discussion Paper
The New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel: A Foundational CMD Data Set
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Mangrum, Daniel; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2024-04-17)
As the Great Financial Crisis and associated recession were unfolding in 2009, researchers at the New York Fed joined colleagues at the Board of Governors and Philadelphia Fed to create a new kind of data set. Household liabilities, particularly mortgages, had gone from being a quiet little corner of the financial system to the center of the worst financial crisis and sharpest recession in decades. The new data set was designed to provide fresh insights into this part of the economy, especially the behavior of mortgage borrowers. In the fifteen years since that effort came to fruition, the ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240417

Speech
Restoring Balance
Williams, John C. (2022-02-18)
Remarks at New Jersey City University (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

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