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Discussion Paper
The Spillover Effects of COVID-19 on Productivity throughout the Supply Chain
Agwam, Victoria E.; Azar, Pablo; Frye, Kyra (2021-09-27)
While the shocks from COVID-19 were concentrated in a handful of contact-intensive industries, they had rippling effects throughout the economy, which culminated in a considerable decline in U.S. GDP. In this post, we estimate how much of the fall in U.S. GDP during the pandemic was driven by spillover effects from the productivity losses of contact-intensive industries.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210927

Discussion Paper
Some Workers Have Been Hit Much Harder than Others by the Pandemic
Abel, Jaison R.; Deitz, Richard (2021-02-09)
As the COVID-19 pandemic took hold in the United States, in just two months—between February and April 2020—the nation saw well over 20 million workers lose their jobs, an unprecedented 15 percent decline. Since then, substantial progress has been made, but employment still remains 5 percent below its pre-pandemic level. However, not all workers have been affected equally. This post is the first in a three-part series exploring disparities in labor market outcomes during the pandemic—and represents an extension of ongoing research into heterogeneities and inequalities in people’s ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20210209a

Speech
The Federal Reserve’s Pandemic Response
Held, Michael (2020-06-25)
Remarks at Union of Arab Banks Webinar: Global Banking in Light of COVID-19 and Geopolitical Development (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Report
COVID Response: The Primary Dealer Credit Facility
McLaughlin, Susan; Martin, Antoine (2021-09-01)
The Federal Reserve established a new Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) in March 2020, to allow primary dealers to support smooth market functioning and facilitate the availability of credit to businesses and households, in the face of deteriorating conditions in the market for triparty repo financing due to the coronavirus pandemic. A similar facility had been established in March 2008 to help restore the orderly functioning of the market, following the near-bankruptcy of Bear Stearns, and to prevent the spillover of distress to other financial firms. This paper provides an overview of ...
Staff Reports , Paper 981

Discussion Paper
Finally, Some Signs of Improvement in the Regional Economy
Deitz, Richard; Bram, Jason; Abel, Jaison R.; Hyman, Benjamin (2020-06-16)
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s June business surveys show some signs of improvement in the regional economy. Following two months of unprecedented decline due to the coronavirus pandemic, indicators of business activity point to a slower pace of contraction in the service sector and signs of a rebound in the manufacturing sector. Even more encouraging, as the regional economy has begun to reopen, many businesses have started to recall workers who were laid off or put on furlough since the start of the pandemic. Some have even hired new workers. Moreover, businesses expect to recall ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200616b

Journal Article
Labor Market May Remain Tight until Labor Demand Cools Further
Tuzemen, Didem (2022-10-21)
U.S. labor demand—measured by job openings or vacancies—has started to cool but is still elevated compared with pre-pandemic levels. At the same time, labor supply—measured by the labor force participation rate remains below pre-pandemic levels. This weakness in the labor force participation rate may persist, as it reflects lower participation among older individuals. Accordingly, the imbalance between demand and supply in the labor market may continue until labor demand cools further.
Economic Bulletin , Issue October 21, 2022 , Pages 4

Discussion Paper
Reconsidering the Phase One Trade Deal with China in the Midst of the Pandemic
Higgins, Matthew; Klitgaard, Thomas (2020-08-05)
It may be hard to remember given the pandemic, but trade tensions between the United States and China eased in January 2020 with the inking of the Phase One agreement. Under the deal, China committed to a massive increase in its purchases of U.S. goods and services, with targets set for various types of products. At the time of the pact, the U.S. economy was operating near full capacity, and any increase in U.S. exports stemming from the pact would likely have resulted in only a small boost to growth. The environment is now starkly different, with the U.S. economy operating far below ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200805

Working Paper
Can Pandemic-Induced Job Uncertainty Stimulate Automation?
Liu, Zheng; Leduc, Sylvain (2020-05-07)
The COVID-19 pandemic has raised concerns about the future of work. The pandemic may become recurrent, necessitating repeated adoptions of social distancing measures (voluntary or mandatory), creating substantial uncertainty about worker productivity. But robots are not susceptible to the virus. Thus, pandemic-induced job uncertainty may boost the incentive for automation. However, elevated uncertainty also reduces aggregate demand and reduces the value of new investment in automation. We assess the importance of automation in driving business cycle dynamics following an increase in job ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2020-19

Speech
The Right Tools for Our Time
Williams, John C. (2022-05-10)
Remarks at NABE/Bundesbank International Economic Symposium Eltville am Rhein, Germany.
Speech

Working Paper
International Trade of Essential Goods During a Pandemic
Leibovici, Fernando; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2020-05)
This paper studies the role of international trade of essential goods during a pandemic. We consider a multi-country, multi-sector model with essential and non-essential goods. Essential goods provide utility relative to a reference consumption level, and a pandemic consists of an increase in this reference level. Each country produces domestic varieties of both types of goods using capital and labor subject to sectoral adjustment costs, and all varieties are traded internationally subject to trade barriers. We study the role of international trade of essential goods in mitigating or ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-010

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