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Speech
Bullard Discusses U.S. Economy with District Business Leaders
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard participated in a virtual discussion with business leaders and bankers from Seymour, Ind., and other areas of Jackson County, Ind. During the event, which was hosted by the St. Louis Fed’s Louisville Branch, he addressed questions on inflationary pressures in 2021, supply chain disruptions, labor force participation, a potential housing bubble, infrastructure spending, the national debt and other topics.Bullard meets regularly with groups in the four zones that make up the St. Louis Fed’s District to share insights on the U.S. economy, as well as to ...
Journal Article
Pushing the Limit: Last-Minute Debt Limit Resolutions Have Increased Market Volatility and Uncertainty
Since reaching the debt limit in January 2023, the U.S. Treasury has used extraordinary measures to fund the government. However, the Treasury estimates those measures will be exhausted later this year. To gauge possible effects, we review economic and financial market outcomes during previous debt limit episodes. In each case, these episodes led to increased borrowing costs, financial market volatility, and uncertainty, particularly when the resolutions were prolonged.
What Does History Reveal about Reducing the National Debt Burden?
A look at the U.S. national debt since World War II reveals that economic growth and fiscal austerity (i.e., spending cuts and raising taxes) are two of the ways to reduce the debt burden.
Journal Article
Does the National Debt Matter?
Although the national debt has grown exponentially over the past 12 years, causing concern for many, it does have its uses—especially in the U.S. Treasury market.
Working Paper
Public Debt Levels and Real Interest Rates: Causal Evidence from Parliamentary Elections
We use close parliamentary elections as natural experiments to estimate the debt sensitivity of interest rates. Relative to an election in which one party barely secures a majority, an election in which no party achieves a majority causes the debt-to-GDP ratio to increase by 17 percentage points, while real interest rates rise by 99 basis points. If elections only impact real rates via debt, our results imply that a one percentage point increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio causes a 5.8 basis point increase in real rates, larger than most previous estimates and suggesting potential reverse ...