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Journal Article
International Inflation Trends
Expected inflation rates have risen in many countries after fiscal and monetary stimulus helped economies recover from the COVID-19 lockdown.
Working Paper
Bank Linkages and International Trade
We show that bank linkages have a positive effect on international trade. We construct the global banking network (GBN) at the bank level, using individual syndicated loan data from Loan Analytics for 1990-2007. We compute network distance between bank pairs and aggregate it to country pairs as a measure of bank linkages between countries. We use data on bilateral trade from IMF DOTS as the subject of our analysis and data on bilateral bank lending from BIS locational data to control for financial integration and financial flows. Using gravity approach to modeling trade with country-pair and ...
Working Paper
Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited
We develop flexible semiparametric time series methods that are then used to assess the causal effect of monetary policy interventions on macroeconomic aggregates. Our estimator captures the average causal response to discrete policy interventions in a macro-dynamic setting, without the need for assumptions about the process generating macroeconomic outcomes. The proposed procedure, based on propensity score weighting, easily accommodates asymmetric and nonlinear responses. Application of this estimator to the effects of monetary restraint shows the Fed to be an effective inflation fighter. ...
Journal Article
Convergence to Rational Expectations in Learning Models: A Note of Caution
We show in a simple monetary model that the learning dynamics do not converge to the rational expectations monetary steady state. We then show it is necessary to restrict the learning rule to obtain convergence. We derive an upper bound on the gain parameter in the learning rule, based on economic fundamentals in the monetary model, such that gain parameters above the upper bound would imply that the learning dynamics would diverge from the rational expectations monetary steady state.
Speech
Unconventional monetary policy and central bank communications : a speech at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York, New York, February 25, 2011
remarks at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York, New York, February 25, 2011
Speech
Assessing potential financial imbalances in an era of accommodative monetary policy : a speech at the 2011 International Conference: Real and Financial Linkage and Monetary Policy, Bank of Japan, Tokyo, Japan, June 1, 2011
remarks at the 2011 International Conference: Real and Financial Linkage and Monetary Policy, Bank of Japan, Tokyo, Japan, June 2, 2011
Working Paper
The Decline of the U.S. Labor Share
Over the past quarter century, labor?s share of income in the United States has trended downwards, reaching its lowest level in the postwar period after the Great Recession. Detailed examination of the magnitude, determinants and implications of this decline delivers five conclusions. First, around one third of the decline in the published labor share is an artifact of a progressive understatement of the labor income of the self-employed underlying the headline measure. Second, movements in labor?s share are not a feature solely of recent U.S. history: The relative stability of the aggregate ...
Working Paper
Does Quantitative Easing Affect Market Liquidity?
The second round of large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve?frequently referred to as QE2?included repeated purchases of Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). To quantify the effect QE2 had on the functioning of the TIPS market and the related market for inflation swaps, we exploit the measure of combined liquidity premiums in TIPS yields and inflation swap rates derived by Christensen and Gillan (2012). We find that, on TIPS purchase dates, the liquidity premium dropped by 8 to 11 basis points depending on maturity, or about 50 percent. Furthermore, the effect was ...
Working Paper
Inflation to target : what inflation to target?
This paper derives a central bank's objective function and optimal policy rule for an economy with both CPI and PPI inflation rates. It implements constrained-optimal policy rules with minimal information requirement, and evaluates the robustness of these simple rules when the central bank may not know the exact sources of shocks or nominal rigidities. One of the main findings is that monetary policy that ignores PPI inflation rate or PPI sector shocks can result in significant welfare loss.