Search Results
Journal Article
Why Are Prime-Age Men Vanishing from the Labor Force?
The labor force participation rate for prime-age men (age 25 to 54) has declined dramatically in the United States since the 1960s, but the decline accelerated more recently. In 1996, 4.6 million prime-age men did not participate in the labor force. By 2016, this number had risen to 7.1 million. Better understanding these men and the personal situations preventing them from working may be crucial in evaluating whether they are likely to return to the labor force. {{p}} Didem Tzemen documents changes in the nonparticipation rates of prime-age men with different demographic characteristics as ...
Journal Article
Employment patterns during the recovery: Who are getting the jobs and why?
Employment gains during the recovery have differed sharply depending on workers' level of education, age, and gender. Workers with high levels of education, workers age 55 and older, and men have experienced the strongest employment gains in the recovery. ; Sahin and Willis analyze these employment patterns and find that the patterns appear to reflect two key factors: long-term trends and cyclical fluctuations. The strong employment growth for highly educated and older workers is a continuation of longer term shifts toward a more highly educated workforce and the aging of the baby boom ...
Speech
What kind of jobs have been created during the recovery?
Remarks at the Regional Economic Press Briefing, New York City.
Potential Jobs Impacted by Covid-19
In this blog, we conduct an exercise to determine the potential consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic on near-term labor market outcomes. This is not a forecast, but an attempt to provide some discipline around potential bounds of the number of jobs impacted by the crisis. We estimate that between nine and 26 million jobs are potentially affected,1 with a best guess of around 15 million. If these jobs are lost, the June unemployment rate could reach between 14% and 18%, with a best guess of around 15%.
Journal Article
The Singularity of the Dual Mandate
Economic security depends on both jobs and stable prices. Together, these two congressionally mandated goals constitute the Fed’s dual mandate. This mandate is not a choice between two desirable things. It is a balance meant to deliver on a singular goal—a sustainable and expanding economy that works for everyone.
Journal Article
The Reallocation of Energy-sector Workers After Oil Price Booms and Busts
Jason P. Brown and Andres Kodaka compare recent job losses in the mining sector with those that occurred during the Great Recession and find displaced workers had an easier time finding new jobs in 2015 than they did during the recession.
Working Paper
Minimum Wages and Labor Markets in the Twin Cities
Using merged administrative datasets from Minnesota, we bring new evidence on the labor market effects of large minimum wage increases by examining the policy changes implemented by Minneapolis and Saint Paul. We begin by using synthetic difference-in-differences methods to estimate counterfactual outcomes at the zip code level from Minnesota and at the city level from the rest of the country. The minimum wage did not affect employment in most industries but exerted a negative impact on restaurants' employment, with an elasticity of -0.8. Next, using variation in exposure to the minimum wage ...
Journal Article
A Slowdown in Job Vacancies Is Likely to Coincide with Higher Unemployment and Slower Wage Growth
Recently, some market observers have proposed that job vacancies could decline, and ease wage growth, without a commensurate increase in the unemployment rate. However, we find that the typical relationship of declining job vacancies and higher unemployment holds even at exceptionally low levels of the unemployment rate. A notable decline in job postings will likely coincide with an easing of tightness in the labor market, a higher unemployment rate, and slowing wage growth.
Startups Account for Smaller Share of U.S. Jobs
Since 1994, startup firms have seen their share of U.S. employment shrink.
Speech
The Economic Recovery: Are We There Yet?
Remarks at Women in Housing and Finance 2021 Annual Symposium (delivered via videoconference).