A Slowdown in Job Vacancies Is Likely to Coincide with Higher Unemployment and Slower Wage Growth

Bi, Huixin; Gulati, Chaitri; Mustre-del-Rio, Jose

Journal Article

A Slowdown in Job Vacancies Is Likely to Coincide with Higher Unemployment and Slower Wage Growth

Abstract: Recently, some market observers have proposed that job vacancies could decline, and ease wage growth, without a commensurate increase in the unemployment rate. However, we find that the typical relationship of declining job vacancies and higher unemployment holds even at exceptionally low levels of the unemployment rate. A notable decline in job postings will likely coincide with an easing of tightness in the labor market, a higher unemployment rate, and slowing wage growth.

Keywords: Jobs; Labor market; Unemployment;

JEL Classification: J62; J63; J64;