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The Economic Outlook – and Two Risks to the Forecast that are Worth Watching
Private forecasters and FOMC participants anticipate a good outcome for the economy in 2020 and beyond, with low inflation and strong labor markets. However, as with any forecast, there are risk scenarios that are not captured in the most likely outcome for the economy. I have highlighted two potential risks that I will be monitoring this year – inflation picking up more than currently expected; and asset prices, particularly real estate prices, showing evidence of more acute financial stability risks. To be fair, there are also downside risks to the economic outlook, as well – primarily ...
Journal Article
How Has Real Wage Growth in the Rocky Mountain Region Outpaced Other States?
Real wage growth in the United States has returned to positive territory on average, driven by growing economic activity, healthy labor markets, and subsiding inflationary pressures. Wage growth is above the current inflation rate, easing but not yet offsetting challenges from recent inflation shocks. Real wage growth is relatively higher in Rocky Mountain States due to the types of jobs being added.