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Report
Does the Community Reinvestment Act Improve Consumers’ Access to Credit
Conway, Jacob; Glaser, Jack; Plosser, Matthew
(2023-01-01)
We study the impact of the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) on access to consumer credit since 1999 using an individual-level panel and three distinct identification strategies: a regression discontinuity design centered on a CRA-eligibility cutoff; a comparison of neighboring census blocks; and an event study of changes in eligibility. All three rule out a significant effect of the CRA on consumer borrowing. We show that this is in part explained by a shift in mortgages from nonbanks, which are free from CRA obligations, to banks in need of CRA-eligible mortgages. Our findings underscore the ...
Staff Reports
, Paper 1048
Working Paper
Foreclosure Kids: Examining the Early Adult Credit Usage of Adolescents Affected by Foreclosure
Barca, Alaina; Santucci, Larry; Schultz, Leigh-Ann
(2022-08-24)
We investigate the long-term effects of foreclosure-induced relocations on adolescents and their subsequent use of credit. We ask whether individuals who experience a foreclosure-induced move between the ages of 10 and 17 are more likely to exhibit signs of credit scarring later in life. To establish a set of counterfactual outcomes, we implement propensity score matching with exact matching on certain characteristics and regression adjustment of the remaining covariate imbalances. We then compare the credit behavior of individuals who experienced a foreclosure-induced move in adolescence to ...
Working Papers
, Paper 22-21
Discussion Paper
Revisiting Federal Student Loan Forgiveness: An Update Based on the White House Plan
Goss, Jacob; Mangrum, Daniel; Scally, Joelle
(2022-09-27)
On August 24, 2022, the White House released a plan to cancel federal student loans for most borrowers. In April, we wrote about the costs and who most benefits from a few hypothetical loan forgiveness proposals using our Consumer Credit Panel, based on Equifax credit report data. In this post, we update our framework to consider the White House plan now that parameters are known, with estimates for the total amount of forgiven loans and the distribution of who holds federal student loans before and after the proposed debt jubilee.
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20220927
Discussion Paper
Breaking Down Auto Loan Performance
Mangrum, Daniel; Lee, Donghoon; Scally, Joelle; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert
(2025-02-13)
Debt balances continued to rise at a moderate pace in the fourth quarter of 2024, and delinquencies, particularly for auto loans and credit cards, remained elevated, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data. Auto loan balances have grown steadily since 2011, expanding by $48 billion in 2024. This increase reflects a steady inflow of newly originated auto loan balances, which in 2024 were boosted primarily by originations to very prime borrowers (those with credit scores over 760) while originations to ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20250213
Discussion Paper
Credit Card Markets Head Back to Normal after Pandemic Pause
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Mangrum, Daniel; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert
(2023-08-08)
Total household debt balances increased by $16 billion in the second quarter of 2023, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data. This reflects a modest rise from the first quarter. Credit card balances saw the largest increase of all debt types—$45 billion—and now stand at $1.03 trillion, surpassing $1 trillion in nominal terms for the first time in the series history. After a sharp contraction in the first year of the pandemic, credit card balances have seen seven quarters of year-over-year growth. The ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20230808
Discussion Paper
An Update on the Health of the U.S. Consumer
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Mangrum, Daniel; McCarthy, Jonathan; Melcangi, Davide; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert
(2023-10-18)
The strength of consumer spending so far this year has surprised most private forecasters. In this post, we examine the factors behind this strength and the implications for consumption in the coming quarters. First, we revisit the measurement of “excess savings” that households have accumulated since 2020, finding that the estimates of remaining excess savings are very sensitive to assumptions about measurement, estimation period, and trend type, which renders them less useful. We thus broaden the discussion to other aspects of the household balance sheet. Using data from the New York ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20231018a
Discussion Paper
Rethinking Mortgage Design
Campbell, John; Lucca, David O.; Vickery, James; Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn; Fuster, Andreas
(2015-08-24)
Because mortgages make up the majority of household debt in most developed countries, mortgage design has important implications for macroeconomic policy and household welfare. As one example, most U.S. mortgages have fixed interest rates?if interest rates fall, existing borrowers need to refinance to lower their interest payments. In practice, households are often slow to refinance, or may not be able to do so. As a result, the transmission of U.S. monetary policy is dampened relative to countries like the United Kingdom where mortgage rates on most loans adjust automatically with short-term ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20150824
Discussion Paper
Income Growth Outpaces Household Borrowing
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Mangrum, Daniel; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert
(2024-11-13)
U.S. household debt balances grew by $147 billion (0.8 percent) over the third quarter, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data. Balances on all loan products recorded moderate increases, led by mortgages (up $75 billion), credit cards (up $24 billion), and auto loans (up $18 billion). Meanwhile, delinquency rates have also risen over the past two years, returning to roughly pre-pandemic levels (and exceeding them in the case of credit cards and auto loans), though there are some signs of stabilization ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20241113
Working Paper
For Better and for Worse? Effects of Access to High-Cost Consumer Credit
Dobridge, Christine L.
(2016-07)
I provide empirical evidence that the effect of high-cost credit access on household material well-being depends on if a household is experiencing temporary financial distress. Using detailed data on household consumption and location, as well as geographic variation in access to high cost payday loans over time, I find that payday credit access improves wellbeing for households in distress by helping them smooth consumption. In periods of temporary financial distress?after extreme weather events like hurricanes and blizzards?I find that payday loan access mitigates declines in spending on ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2016-056
Working Paper
Confidence, Financial Literacy and Investment in Risky Assets: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances
Fessler, Pirmin; Hsu, Joanne W.; http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/; http://fedora:8080/fcrepo/rest/objects/authors/
(2020-01-16)
We employ recent Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) microdata from the US to analyze the impacts of confidence in one’s own financial knowledge, confidence in the economy, and objective financial literacy on investment in risky financial assets (equity and bonds) on both the extensive and intensive margins. Controlling for a rich set of covariates including risk aversion, we find that objective financial literacy is positively related to investment in risky assets as well as debt securities. Moreover, confidence in own financial skills additionally increases the probability of holding risky ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2020-004
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