Auto Loan Delinquency Revs Up as Car Prices Stress Budgets

Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Mangrum, Daniel; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Wang, Crystal

Discussion Paper

Auto Loan Delinquency Revs Up as Car Prices Stress Budgets

Abstract: The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the fourth quarter of 2023 this morning. Household debt balances grew by $212 billion over the last quarter. Although there was growth across most loan types, it was moderate compared to the fourth-quarter changes seen in the past few years. Mortgage balances grew by $112 billion and home equity line of credit (HELOC) balances saw an $11 billion bump as borrowers tapped home equity in lieu of refinancing first mortgages. Credit card balances, which typically see substantial increases in the fourth quarter coinciding with holiday spending, grew by $50 billion, and are now 14.5 percent higher than in the fourth quarter of 2022. Auto loan balances saw a $12 billion increase from the previous quarter, continuing the steady growth that has been in place since 2011. In this post, we revisit our analysis on credit cards and examine which groups are struggling with their auto loan payments. The Quarterly Report and this analysis are based on the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel (CCP), a panel which is drawn from Equifax credit reports.

Keywords: household finance; auto loans; Consumer Credit Panel (CCP); consumer credit;

JEL Classification: D14;