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Discussion Paper
Credit Card Delinquencies Continue to Rise—Who Is Missing Payments?
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Mangrum, Daniel; Rodriguez, Belicia; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Wang, Crystal (2023-11-07)
This morning, the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released the 2023:Q3 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. After only moderate growth in the second quarter, total household debt balances grew $228 billion in the third quarter across all types, especially credit cards and student loans. Credit card balances grew $48 billion this quarter and marked the eighth quarter of consecutive year-over year increases. The $154 billion nominal year-over-year increase in credit card balances marks the largest such increase since the beginning of our time series in 1999. The ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20231107

Discussion Paper
Auto Loan Delinquency Revs Up as Car Prices Stress Budgets
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Mangrum, Daniel; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Wang, Crystal (2024-02-06)
The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the fourth quarter of 2023 this morning. Household debt balances grew by $212 billion over the last quarter. Although there was growth across most loan types, it was moderate compared to the fourth-quarter changes seen in the past few years. Mortgage balances grew by $112 billion and home equity line of credit (HELOC) balances saw an $11 billion bump as borrowers tapped home equity in lieu of refinancing first mortgages. Credit card balances, which typically see substantial ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240206

Working Paper
Relieving Financial Distress Increases Voter Turnout: Evidence from the Mortgage Market
Liu, Haoyang; McCartney, W. Ben; Ramcharan, Rodney; Zhang, Calvin; Zhang, Xiaohan (2025-05-12)
Borrowers who refinanced mortgages between 2009 and 2012, a period marked by mortgage distress and dislocated housing markets, but also falling interest rates, were more likely to vote in the 2012 general election than similar borrowers who did not refinance. We exploit an eligibility cutoff in the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) to identify a causal relationship. Consistent with the resource model of voting, the effect of refinancing on turnout is strongest among borrowers with lower incomes and larger debt service reductions. Our findings shed new light on an important channel ...
Working Papers , Paper 2517

Report
President's Message: The St. Louis Fed's New Center for Household Financial Stability
Bullard, James B. (2012)
President James Bullard announces the St. Louis Fed's new Center for Household Financial Stability. This year's annual report features some of the Center's research.
Annual Report

Discussion Paper
An Update on the Health of the U.S. Consumer
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Mangrum, Daniel; McCarthy, Jonathan; Melcangi, Davide; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2023-10-18)
The strength of consumer spending so far this year has surprised most private forecasters. In this post, we examine the factors behind this strength and the implications for consumption in the coming quarters. First, we revisit the measurement of “excess savings” that households have accumulated since 2020, finding that the estimates of remaining excess savings are very sensitive to assumptions about measurement, estimation period, and trend type, which renders them less useful. We thus broaden the discussion to other aspects of the household balance sheet. Using data from the New York ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20231018a

Discussion Paper
Delinquency Is Increasingly in the Cards for Maxed‑Out Borrowers
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Mangrum, Daniel; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Wang, Crystal (2024-05-14)
This morning, the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the first quarter of 2024. Household debt balances grew by $184 billion over the previous quarter, slightly less than the moderate growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2023. Housing debt balances grew by $206 billion. Auto loans saw a $9 billion increase, continuing their steady growth since the second quarter of 2020, while balances on other non-housing debts fell. Credit card balances fell by $14 billion, which is typical for the first quarter. However, an ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20240514

Discussion Paper
When the Household Pie Shrinks, Who Gets Their Slice?
Conway, Jacob; Fischl-Lanzoni, Natalia; Plosser, Matthew (2025-03-06)
When households face budgetary constraints, they may encounter bills and debts that they cannot pay. Unlike corporate credit, which typically includes cross-default triggers, households can be delinquent on a specific debt without repercussions from their other lenders. Hence, households can choose which creditors are paid. Analyzing these choices helps economists and investors better understand the strategic incentives of households and the risks of certain classes of credit.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20250306

Speech
Presentation by Andrew F. Haughwout at the Greater Valley Chamber of Commerce
Haughwout, Andrew F. (2024-03-05)
Presentation on the economic outlook delivered by Andrew F. Haughwout, Director of Household and Public Policy Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This presentation was delivered at the Greater Valley Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook 2024 meeting in Shelton, Connecticut.
Speech

Report
Consumer Credit Reporting Data
Gibbs, Christa N.; Guttman-Kenney, Benedict; Lee, Donghoon; Nelson, Scott; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Wang, Jialan (2024-08-01)
Since the 2000s, economists across fields have increasingly used consumer credit reporting data for research. We introduce readers to the economics of and the institutional details of these data. Using examples from the literature, we provide practical guidance on how to use these data to construct economic measures of borrowing, consumption, credit access, financial distress, and geographic mobility. We explain what credit scores measure, and why. We highlight how researchers can access credit reporting data via existing datasets or by creating new datasets, including by linking credit ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1114

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