Journal Article
The Bell Curve of Global CO2 Emission Intensity
Arnaut-Hull, Zoë; Jordà, Òscar; Nechio, Fernanda (2023-10-16)
Countries’ commitments to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions can have important implications for their economies. Data since the 1800s reveal that the amount of CO2 emissions generated for a given level of output follows a bell-shaped curve. Pairing this with projections of future economic growth can help in predicting future overall emissions. Comparing actual data with past projections for levels of emission intensity reveals that reductions have been slower than predicted over the past 40 years. This divergence highlights the challenges many countries may face in reaching their ...
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2023 , Issue 27 , Pages 6

Journal Article
COVID-19 and CO2
Hale, Galina; Leduc, Sylvain (2020-07-06)
One potential side effect from the rapid decline of global economic activity since the worldwide pandemic is a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. Historically, CO2 emissions rise and fall in tandem with economic activity in the short run. Since the industries most affected by the downturn also produce the most CO2, emissions could drop more than output this time around. However, without substantial and sustained changes in energy sources and efficiency, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere—the relevant factor causing climate change—will continue on its upward trajectory.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2020 , Issue 18 , Pages 06