The Bell Curve of Global CO2 Emission Intensity

Arnaut-Hull, Zoë; Jordà, Òscar; Nechio, Fernanda

Journal Article

The Bell Curve of Global CO2 Emission Intensity

Abstract: Countries’ commitments to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions can have important implications for their economies. Data since the 1800s reveal that the amount of CO2 emissions generated for a given level of output follows a bell-shaped curve. Pairing this with projections of future economic growth can help in predicting future overall emissions. Comparing actual data with past projections for levels of emission intensity reveals that reductions have been slower than predicted over the past 40 years. This divergence highlights the challenges many countries may face in reaching their emissions targets.

Keywords: global warming; climate change; carbon dioxide emissions;