Search Results
Speech
The Economic Outlook – and Two Risks to the Forecast that are Worth Watching
Private forecasters and FOMC participants anticipate a good outcome for the economy in 2020 and beyond, with low inflation and strong labor markets. However, as with any forecast, there are risk scenarios that are not captured in the most likely outcome for the economy. I have highlighted two potential risks that I will be monitoring this year – inflation picking up more than currently expected; and asset prices, particularly real estate prices, showing evidence of more acute financial stability risks. To be fair, there are also downside risks to the economic outlook, as well – primarily ...
Working Paper
BLS Payroll Revisions: Forecasting Recessions
We investigate the behavior of BLS monthly revisions to payroll growth at turning points. We find some evidence corroborating claims by former BLS commissioners and market analysts that revisions around turning points tend to be procyclical and more serially correlated. Furthermore, we do see large revisions before turning points. However, the ability to use revisions to forecast business cycles' turning points seems limited. First, we do see lots of false positives: large revisions occur without a subsequent recession. Second, even within-sample, other indicators, such as initial jobless ...