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Journal Article
United Way THRIVE Focuses on Financial Goals
Community Development, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2013)
The United Way THRIVE program’s strategy is to help individuals and families reach their financial objectives through asset-building efforts, using a three-pronged system.
e-Perspectives , Volume 13 , Issue 3

Working Paper
Model Risk of Risk Models
Valenzuela, Marcela; Danielsson, Jon; James, Kevin; Zer, Ilknur (2014-04-16)
This paper evaluates the model risk of models used for forecasting systemic and market risk. Model risk, which is the potential for different models to provide inconsistent outcomes, is shown to be increasing with and caused by market uncertainty. During calm periods, the underlying risk forecast models produce similar risk readings, hence, model risk is typically negligible. However, the disagreement between the various candidate models increases significantly during market distress, with a no obvious way to identify which method is the best. Finally, we discuss the main problems in risk ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-34

Working Paper
The Financial Stability Implications of Digital Assets
Scotti, Chiara; Carapella, Francesca; Rappoport, David E.; Baughman, Garth; Swem, Nathan; Vardoulakis, Alexandros (2022-08)
The value of assets in the digital ecosystem has grown rapidly, amid periods of high volatility. Does the digital financial system create new potential challenges to financial stability? This paper explores this question using the Federal Reserve’s framework for analyzing vulnerabilities in the traditional financial system. The digital asset ecosystem has recently proven itself highly fragile. However adverse digital asset markets shocks have had limited spillovers to the traditional financial system. Currently, the digital asset ecosystem does not provide significant financial services ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-058

Discussion Paper
A Peek behind the Curtain of Bank Supervision
Goldsmith-Pinkham, Paul; Lucca, David O.; Hirtle, Beverly (2016-04-14)
Since the financial crisis, bank regulatory and supervisory policies have changed dramatically both in the United States (Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act) and abroad (Third Basel Accord). While these shifts have occasioned much debate, the discussion surrounding supervision remains limited because most supervisory activity? both the amount of supervisory attention and the demands for corrective action by supervisors?is confidential. Drawing on our recent staff report ?Parsing the Content of Bank Supervision,? this post provides a peek behind the scenes of bank ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160414

Report
Non-Bank Financial Institutions and Banks’ Fire-Sale Vulnerabilities
Cetorelli, Nicola; Landoni, Mattia; Lu, Lina (2023-03-01)
Banks carry significant exposures to nonbanks from direct dealings, but they can also be exposed, indirectly, through losses in asset values resulting from fire-sale events. We assess the vulnerability of U.S. banks to fire sales potentially originating from any of twelve separate nonbank segments and identify network-like externalities driven by the interconnectedness across nonbank types in terms of asset holdings. We document that such network externalities can contribute to very large multiples of an original fire sale, thus suggesting that conventional assessments of fire-sale ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1057

Journal Article
So Far, So Good: Government Insurance of Financial Sector Tail Risk
Wall, Larry D. (2021-11-08)
The US government has intervened to provide extraordinary support 16 times from 1970 to 2020 with the goal of preventing or mitigating (or both) the cost of financial instability to the financial sector and the real economy. This article discusses the motivation for such support, reviewing the instances where support was provided, along with one case where it was expected but not provided. The article then discusses the moral hazard and fiscal risks posed by the government's insurance of the tail risk along with ways to reduce the government's risk exposure.
Policy Hub , Volume 2021 , Issue 13

Speech
Exploring current economic conditions and the implications for monetary policy: remarks at 1Berkshire Economic Outlook Luncheon, Dalton, Massachusetts, October 26, 2018
Rosengren, Eric S. (2018-10-26)
Topics covered include: recent monetary policy actions; outlook -- continued robust growth; clear risks to the forecast; how should policy respond to strong base forecast but rising risks?; inflation for goods and services; exports are important and uncertain.
Speech , Paper 139

Speech
Commodity derivatives markets and financial stability
Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam (2023-09-13)
Keynote remarks by Sam Schulhofer-Wohl at FIA Forum: Commodities 2023—Commodity Derivatives Markets in the Age of Uncertainty, Houston, Texas.
Speeches and Essays

Working Paper
Financial Shocks in an Uncertain Economy
Scotti, Chiara (2023-07-07)
The past 15 years have been eventful. The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) reminded us of the importance of a stable financial system to a well-functioning economy, one with low and stable inflation and maximum employment. Given the recent banking stress, we ponder this issue again. The pandemic was a huge shock surrounded by much uncertainty, making precise forecasts within traditional models difficult. And more recently, there has been continuous talk of a soft landing and recession risks.In this paper, I focus on some of the lessons we have learned over the years: (i) uncertainty and tail ...
Working Papers , Paper 2308

Discussion Paper
Is There Too Much Business Debt?
Zborowski, Brandon; Kovner, Anna (2019-05-29)
By many measures, nonfinancial corporate debt has been increasing as a share of GDP and assets since 2010. As the May Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report explained, high business debt can be a financial stability risk because heavily indebted corporations may need to cut back spending more sharply when shocks occur. Our bloggers review measures of corporate leverage in the United States and find that, although corporate debt has soared, concerns about debt growth are mitigated in part by higher corporate cash flows.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20190529

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