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Report
Strategic Sophistication and Trading Profits: An Experiment with Professional Traders
Angrisani, Marco; Guarino, Antonio; Cipriani, Marco (2022-12-01)
We run an experiment where professional traders, endowed with private information, trade an asset over multiple periods. After the trading game, we gather information about the professional traders’ characteristics by having them carry out a series of tasks. We study which of these characteristics predict profits in the trading game. We find that strategic sophistication, as measured in the Guessing Game (for example, through level-k theory), is the only significant determinant of professional traders’ profits. In contrast, profits are not driven by individual characteristics such as ...
Staff Reports , Paper 1044

Discussion Paper
Leader-Follower Dynamics in Shareholder Activism
Cetemen, Doruk; Cisternas, Gonzalo; Kolb, Aaron; Viswanathan, S (2023-09-06)
Activist shareholders play a central role in modern corporations, influencing the capital structure, business strategy, and governance of firms. Such “blockholders” range from investors who actively jawbone or break up firms to index funds that are largely passive in that they limit themselves to voting. In between, however, is a key group of blockholders that have historically focused on trading but have embraced activism as an established business strategy in the past few decades. Campaigns involving such “trading” blockholders have become ubiquitous, increasingly targeting ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20230906

Discussion Paper
At the N.Y. Fed: The Transatlantic Economy: Convergence or Divergence?
Rouxel-Laxton, Valérie; Rey, Helene; Bertoldi, Moreno; Pesenti, Paolo (2016-06-03)
On April 18, 2016, the New York Fed hosted a conference on current and future policy directions for the linked economies of Europe and the United States. “The Transatlantic Economy: Convergence or Divergence?”—organized jointly with the Centre for Economic Policy Research and the European Commission—brought together U.S. and Europe-based policymakers, regulators, and academics to discuss a series of important issues: Are the economies of the euro area and the United States on a convergent or divergent path? Are financial regulatory reforms making the banking and financial structures ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20160603

What Do Financial Markets Say about Future Inflation?
Chien, YiLi; Bennett, Julie (2022-06-23)
Though U.S. inflation has been unexpectedly high in the past year, inflation swap data indicate that longer-term inflation expectations remain relatively steady.
On the Economy

Newsletter
Managing Risk in Global Financial Markets: CCP Governance, Supervisory Stress Testing, and Default Management Auctions
Alvarez, Nahiomy (2018)
The second annual Symposium on OTC Derivatives was held in Shanghai on June 26, 2018. This event was cosponsored by the People?s Bank of China and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and hosted by CCP12 (The Global Association of Central Counterparties). Its three panels focused on central counterparty (CCP) governance, supervisory stress testing, and default management auctions.
Chicago Fed Letter

Speech
Welcoming Remarks: Thirteenth Annual International Banking Conference
Evans, Charles L. (2010-09-23)
Welcoming remarks delivered by Charles Evans before the Thirteenth Annual International Banking Conference on September 23, 2010, in Chicago, IL.
Speech , Paper 46

Newsletter
Shifting Ground: The Changing Landscape in Financial Markets and Technology
Eckblad, Marshall; Oppenheimer, Ana; Black, Lamont K. (2016)
The Chicago Fed?s Supervision and Regulation Department and DePaul University?s Center for Financial Services held their ninth annual risk conference on March 29?30, 2016. The conference brought together financial industry professionals, academics, and regulators to discuss the challenges and opportunities posed by the uncertain outlooks for financial markets and geopolitical landscapes across the globe, as well as by the array of innovations from financial technology, or ?fintech,? firms.
Chicago Fed Letter

Speech
Weighing the risks to the economic outlook: remarks at a meeting of The Breakfast Group, Boston, Massachusetts, September 4, 2019
Rosengren, Eric S. (2019-09-04)
Speech , Paper 148

Speech
The Economy in the Time of Coronavirus
Williams, John C. (2020-05-21)
Remarks at the Buffalo Niagara Partnership, the Greater Rochester Chamber of Commerce, and CenterState CEO (delivered via videoconference).
Speech

Working Paper
Assessing Central Bank Commitment to Inflation Targeting: Evidence from Financial Market Expectations in India
Garga, Vaishali; Lakdawala, Aeimit K.; Sengupta, Rajeswari (2022-10-01)
We propose a novel framework to gauge the credibility of central banks’ commitment to an inflation-targeting regime. Our framework combines survey data on macroeconomic forecasts with high-frequency financial market data to understand how inflation targeting makes economic agents change their perception about central bank decisions. Specifically, using the Reserve Bank of India’s adoption of inflation targeting in 2015 as a laboratory, we apply two different approaches to estimate a market-perceived monetary policy rule and analyze how it changed with the implementation of inflation ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-19

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