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Journal Article
Continuity and Change in the Federal Reserve's Perspective on Price Stability
We examined statements made by Federal Reserve leadership since the early 1950s and established there has been considerable continuity in policymakers’ perceptions of the benefits of price stability. Policymakers have consistently contended that deviations from price stability give rise to greater cyclical instability, and they have also frequently suggested that potential output is significantly lowered by inflation. The recurrent support for price stability that comes through in these statements implies that it is invalid to interpret deviations from price stability in the U.S. economy as ...
A Look at Inflation in Recent Years through the Lens of a Macroeconomic Model
Using an econometric model of the U.S. economy, this analysis looks at the factors, including fiscal and monetary policies, that spurred both inflation and output in recent years.
Journal Article
Future Output Loss from COVID-Induced School Closures
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused massive disruptions to the U.S. educational system. Research on school closures—particularly combined with parental income loss—implies that children are likely to attain lower levels of lifetime education compared with pre-pandemic trends. Projections show learning disruptions could lower the level of annual economic output ¼ percentage point on average over the next 70 years. The effect is small the first 5–10 years then peaks at a loss of ½ percentage point in about 25 years, when the children reach prime working age.
Journal Article
What To Know About the Rise of Services
What should you know about the rise of services over the past 40 years? The services sector now accounts for about 79% of output, 85% of employment, 83% of firms, and 78% of household spending.