Future Output Loss from COVID-Induced School Closures

Fernald, John G.; Li, Huiyu; Ochse, Mitchell

Journal Article

Future Output Loss from COVID-Induced School Closures

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused massive disruptions to the U.S. educational system. Research on school closures—particularly combined with parental income loss—implies that children are likely to attain lower levels of lifetime education compared with pre-pandemic trends. Projections show learning disruptions could lower the level of annual economic output ¼ percentage point on average over the next 70 years. The effect is small the first 5–10 years then peaks at a loss of ½ percentage point in about 25 years, when the children reach prime working age.

Keywords: COVID-19; school closures; parental income; economic output;