Search Results
Briefing
Large Excess Reserves and the Relationship between Money and Prices
As a consequence of the Federal Reserve's response to the financial crisis of 2007?08 and the Great Recession, the supply of reserves in the U.S. banking system increased dramatically. Historically, over long horizons, money and prices have been closely tied together, but over the past decade, prices have risen only modestly while base money (reserves plus currency) has grown substantially. A macroeconomic model helps explain this behavior and suggests some potential limits to the Fed's ability to increase the size of its balance sheet indefinitely while remaining consistent with its ...
Discussion Paper
The Anatomy of Export Controls
Governments increasingly use export controls to limit the spread of domestic cutting-edge technologies to other countries. The sectors that are currently involved in this geopolitical race include semiconductors, telecommunications, and artificial intelligence. Despite their growing adoption, little is known about the effect of export controls on supply chains and the productive sector at large. Do export controls induce a selective decoupling of the targeted goods and sectors? How do global customer-supplier relations react to export controls? What are their effects on the productive sector? ...
Report
Geopolitical Risk and Decoupling: Evidence from U.S. Export Controls
Hegemonic countries safeguard their dominant position by maintaining technological leadership. To this end, the U.S. has imposed export controls to restrict China’s access to strategic, cutting-edge technologies. We document that these measures lead to an immediate, broad-based decoupling of supply chains, with U.S. suppliers more likely to end relations with Chinese customers—even those not directly targeted by the policy. However, we find no evidence of reshoring or friend-shoring in U.S. supply chains. Due to these disruptions, affected U.S. suppliers experience a $130 billion decline ...