Report
Securing Technological Leadership? The Cost of Export Controls on Firms
Abstract: To safeguard its technological leadership, the U.S. has restricted domestic suppliers from exporting specific cutting-edge technologies to selected Chinese firms. Domestic firms affected by these export controls halt sales to Chinese customers, as intended, but struggle to establish new relations with alternative customers domestically or in politically aligned regions. As a result, domestic suppliers experience a $130 billion decline in market capitalization, along with reductions in profitability, employment, and bank lending. We also show how Chinese firms strategically respond to export controls. Overall, export controls impose significant costs on domestic firms producing the very technologies these policies intend to protect.
JEL Classification: F38; F51; G12;
https://doi.org/10.59576/sr.1096
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Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Part of Series: Staff Reports
Publication Date: 2024-04-01
Number: 1096
Note: Revised February 2025. Previous title: “Geopolitical Risk and Decoupling: Evidence from U.S. Export Controls.”