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Working Paper
On Commercial Construction Activity's Long and Variable Lags
Glancy, David P.; Kurtzman, Robert J.; Loewenstein, Lara (2024-06-27)
We use microdata on the phases of commercial construction projects to document three facts regarding time-to-plan lags: (1) plan times are long—about 1.5 years—and highly variable, (2) roughly 40 percent of projects are abandoned in planning, and (3) property price appreciation reduces the likelihood of abandonment. We construct a model with endogenous planning starts and abandonment that matches these facts. The model has the testable implication that supply is more elastic when there are more "shovel ready" projects available to advance to construction. We use local projections to ...
Working Papers , Paper 24-14

Speech
Assessing economic conditions and risks to financial stability: remarks at the Stern School of Business, Salomon Center for the Study of Financial Institutions, New York University, New York, New York, September 20, 2019
Rosengren, Eric S. (2019-09-20)
The stance of policy is already accommodative. The economic data suggest continued expansion. Risks to the economic outlook are of concern, to be sure. Responding to risks to the economic outlook with too much monetary accommodation entails costs, and thus introduces risks of its own ? one such risk is the potential buildup of financial instability.
Speech , Paper 149

Journal Article
Opinion: Banks and the Commercial Real Estate Challenge
Kovner, Anna (2024-10)
Even though years have passed since the major disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic, it's clear that demand has been hard hit for some types of commercial real estate — especially downtown office buildings. Researchers at the Richmond Fed surveyed employers in March and found that more than a third expect employees to be on site three days a week or fewer. Asset values have adjusted accordingly to this change in demand. One measure of these price declines comes from publicly traded office real estate investment trusts (REITs), where values have fallen by more than 30 percent since early 2022.
Econ Focus , Volume 24 , Issue 4Q , Pages 32

Working Paper
Debt Overhang and the Retail Apocalypse
Liebersohn, Jack; Correa, Ricardo; Sicilian, Martin (2022-08)
Debt overhang is central for theories of capital structure, yet credible empirical estimates of its effects remain elusive. We study the consequences and mechanisms of debt overhang using exogenous changes in the leverage of commercial retail properties. Identification comes from changes in property values occurring after pre-determined debt rollover dates. We show that debt reduces profitability by impairing property owners' response to negative shocks, reducing the business activity of their remaining retail tenants. For the median property, a 10 percentage point leverage increase causes ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1356

Working Paper
Imperfect Substitutability in Real Estate Markets and the Effect of Housing Demand on the Macroeconomy
Davis, J. Scott; Sapci, Ayse; Huang, Kevin X. D. (2020-09-28)
Changes in housing demand can have a macroeconomic effect through the collateral channel, where the change in residential real estate prices is associated with a change in commercial real estate prices, affecting firm collateral and thus firm investment. We argue that this channel is weaker when residential and commercial real estate are poor substitutes. Using cross-state heterogeneity in the strength of zoning regulations as a proxy for heterogeneity in the substitutability of residential and commercial real estate, we first show with firm level data that the strength of local zoning ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 401

Working Paper
Recourse as Shadow Equity: Evidence from Commercial Real Estate Loans
Glancy, David P.; Kurtzman, Robert J.; Loewenstein, Lara; Nichols, Joseph B. (2021-12-17)
We study the role that recourse plays in the commercial real estate loan contracts of the largest U.S. banks. We find that recourse is valued by lenders and is treated as a substitute for conventional equity. At origination, recourse loans have rate spreads that are at least 20 basis points lower and loan-to-value ratios that are around 3 percentage points higher than non-recourse loans. Dynamically, recourse affects loan modification negotiations by providing additional bargaining power to the lender. Recourse loans were half as likely to receive accommodation during the COVID-19 pandemic, ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2021-079

Briefing
Understanding the Surge in Commercial Real Estate Lending
Muething, Catherine; Fessenden, Helen (2017-08)
U.S. banks have increased their commercial real estate (CRE) lending significantly in the past five years. Economists and regulators note that some positive factors are driving this trend, but they also see potential risks. Analysts at the Richmond Fed have found that some banks could be especially vulnerable if economic conditions deteriorate. These include institutions that are in certain major urban areas and have high concentrations of CRE loans, rapid CRE loan growth, and heavy reliance on "noncore" (or illiquid) funding. But the analysts also conclude that, overall, banks' CRE exposures ...
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue August

Journal Article
Banks’ Commercial Real Estate Risks Are Uneven
Pandolfo, Jordan; Marsh, W. Blake (2024-04-18)
Investors have been acutely attuned to commercial real estate (CRE) risks recently due to higher interest rates and changes in how Americans work. On the surface, these risks may seem particularly concerning for small and regional banks, which tend to hold large concentrations of loans backed by commercial properties. However, we show that CRE risks can vary substantially across property types and geographic locations, suggesting that aggregate CRE exposure may be a poor measure of risk.
Economic Bulletin

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