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COVID-19 and the Importance of Testing
Using only the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases does not help us understand the scope of the pandemic.
Working Paper
Quarantine, Contact Tracing, and Testing: Implications of an Augmented SEIR Model
I incorporate quarantine, contact tracing, and random testing in the basic SEIR model of infectious disease diffusion. A version of the model that is calibrated to known characteristics of the spread of COVID-19 is used to estimate the transmission rate of COVID-19 in the United States in 2020. The transmission rate is then decomposed into a part that reflects observable changes in employment and social contacts and a residual component that reflects disease properties and all other factors that affect the spread of the disease. I then construct counterfactuals for an alternative ...
COVID-19 and Financial Distress: Vulnerability to Infection and Death
Although COVID-19 initially spread faster in areas with low financial distress, evidence suggests that infections may spread most rapidly in highly financially distressed areas moving forward.