Quarantine, Contact Tracing, and Testing: Implications of an Augmented SEIR Model
Abstract: I incorporate quarantine, contact tracing, and random testing in the basic SEIR model of infectious disease diﬀusion. A version of the model that is calibrated to known characteristics of the spread of COVID-19 is used to estimate the transmission rate of COVID-19 in the United States in 2020. The transmission rate is then decomposed into a part that reﬂects observable changes in employment and social contacts and a residual component that reﬂects disease properties and all other factors that aﬀect the spread of the disease. I then construct counterfactuals for an alternative employment path that avoids the sharp employment decline in the second quarter of 2020 but also results in higher cumulative deaths due to a higher contact rate. For the simulations, a modest permanent increase of quarantine eﬀectiveness counteracts the increase in deaths, and the introduction of contact tracing and random testing further reduces deaths, although at a diminishing rate. Using a conservative assumption on the statistical value of life, the value of improved health outcomes from the alternative policies far outweighs the economic gains in terms of increased output and the potential ﬁscal costs of these policies.
File format is application/pdf
Description: Full text
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Part of Series: Working Paper
Publication Date: 2021-03-31
Note: * This working paper is a substantially revised version of Working Paper No. 20-04, “Social Distancing, Quarantine, Contact Tracing, and Testing: Implications from an Augmented SEIR Model.” Working Paper No. 20-04