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Journal Article
Opportunity Zones: Understanding the Background and Potential Impact in Northeastern Illinois
This article offers a primer on: Opportunity Zones, highlighting the designation process for census tracts in northeastern Illinois; Qualified Opportunity Funds (QOF) ? the vehicle that will facilitate investment in designated areas; and finally, how QOFs will help facilitate the goals of the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning?s ON TO 2050 Plan.
Report
Is implied correlation worth calculating? Evidence from foreign exchange options and historical data
This paper examines the performance of implied correlations in forecasting subsequently realized correlations between exchange rates. Implied correlations are derived from sets of implied volatilities on the three exchange rates in a currency trio. We compare the forecasting performance of the implied correlations from two currency trios with markedly different characteristics over two forecast horizons (one month and three months) against a set of alternative correlation forecasts based on time-series data. ; For the correlations in the USD/DEM/ JPY currency trio, we find that the ...
Journal Article
How statistics can mislead
Journal Article
Price hedonics: a critical review
This paper was presented at the conference "Economic Statistics: New Needs for the Twenty-First Century," cosponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth, and the National Association for Business Economics, July 11, 2002. The main objective of this paper is to make a start in the evaluation of price hedonics. The author describes the hedonic model and reviews its main uses, because the credibility of price hedonics depends in part on the current state of academic research. This is a brief overview. The author then turns to some of the ...
Journal Article
Economic statistics: new needs for the twenty-first century - opening remarks
The purpose of this conference was to deepen our understanding of some of the key conceptual issues current facing those charged with measuring the performance of the U.S. economy and other economies around the globe. The speakers discussed recent efforts to improve economic and financial data and explore strategies for meeting the challenges that lay ahead. The conference focused on four key areas: 1) the measurement of intangible capital, 2) the measurement of service sector output, prices and productivity, 3) the measurement of international capital positions and flows, and 4) the use of ...
Working Paper
Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration
This paper provides cumulative distribution functions, densities, and finite sample critical values for the single-equation error correction statistic for testing cointegration. Graphs and response surfaces summarize extensive Monte Carlo simulations and highlight simple dependencies of the statistic's quantiles on the number of variables in the error correction model, the choice of deterministic components, and the estimation sample size. The response surfaces provide a convenient way for calculating finite sample critical values at standard levels; and a computer program, freely available ...
Journal Article
A revised picture: has our view of the economy changed?
A discussion of the major statistical changes in the December 1985 benchmark revisions of the National Income and Product Accounts statistics and of their impact on business cycle timing and magnitudes.
Working Paper
A generalization of generalized beta distributions
This paper introduces the ``compound confluent hypergeometric'' (CCH) distribution. The CCH unifies and generalizes three recently introduced generalizations of the beta distribution: the Gauss hypergeometric (GH) distribution of Armero and Bayarri (1994), the generalized beta (GB) distribution of McDonald and Xu (1995), and the confluent hypergeometric (CH) distribution of Gordy (forthcoming). Unlike the beta, GB and GH, the CCH allows for conditioning on explanatory variables in a natural and convenient way. The CCH family is conjugate for gamma distributed signals, and so may also prove ...