Search Results
Journal Article
Residual seasonality and monetary policy
Much recent discussion has suggested that the official real GDP data are inadequately adjusted for recurring seasonal fluctuations. A similar pattern of insufficient seasonal adjustment also affects the published data for a key measure of price inflation. Still, such residual seasonality in the published output and inflation statistics is unlikely to mislead Federal Reserve policymakers or adversely affect the setting of monetary policy.
Journal Article
Seasonal production smoothing
Empirical tests of the production-smoothing hypothesis have yielded mixed results. In this paper, Donald Allen looks for and finds evidence of seasonal production smoothing in 15 out of 25 manufacturing series and eight out of 10 retail series, using detrended seasonally unadjusted data. The equivalent test using seasonally adjusted data were negative for all 35 series. The results suggest that seasonally adjusted data obscure short-term production smoothing.
Report
Periodic linear-quadratic methods for modeling seasonality
Optimal linear regulator methods are used to represent a class of models of endogenous equilibrium seasonality that has so far received little attention. Seasonal structure is built into these models in either of two equivalent ways: periodically varying the coefficient matrices of a formerly nonseasonal problem or embedding this periodic-coefficient problem in a higher-dimensional sparse system whose time-invariant matrices have a special pattern of zero blocks. The former structure is compact and convenient computationally; the latter can be used to apply familiar convergence results from ...
Working Paper
Federal Reserve policy strategy and interest rate seasonality
During the 1970's short-term interest rates have exhibited extreme variability by recent historical standards.
Working Paper
A neoclassical model of seasonal fluctuations
Journal Article
Unemployment seasonals
Journal Article
The problem of seasonally adjusted money
An essay on the effect that seasonal money supply fluctations have on the measurement of M1 and on Federal Reserve money supply management, with a discussion of the X-11 adjustment method and suggestions for improving it.
Journal Article
A problem of seasonal adjustment
A discussion of how new financial instruments have made accurate seasonal adjustment of monetary data more difficult since 1980.