Seasonal production smoothing
Abstract: Empirical tests of the production-smoothing hypothesis have yielded mixed results. In this paper, Donald Allen looks for and finds evidence of seasonal production smoothing in 15 out of 25 manufacturing series and eight out of 10 retail series, using detrended seasonally unadjusted data. The equivalent test using seasonally adjusted data were negative for all 35 series. The results suggest that seasonally adjusted data obscure short-term production smoothing.
File(s): File format is application/pdf https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/99/09/9909da.pdf
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Part of Series: Review
Publication Date: 1999