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Working Paper
The Dynamics of Long-Run Inflation Expectations: A Market-Based Perspective
Cole, Anna; Kozlowski, Julian; Martorana, Joseph (2025-06-30)
This paper analyzes market-based probability distributions for long-run inflation expectations derived from inflation derivatives. We construct forward-looking distributions for five-year-ahead inflation to assess the likelihood that inflation will fall above, below, or near the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. By examining the mean, volatility, and skewness of these distributions, we document how expectations have evolved since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. To assess the reliability of market-based measures, we compare our results with alternative data sources. We highlight the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2025-015

Journal Article
On the Mechanics of Fiscal Inflations
Bassetto, Marco; Benzoni, Luca; Hall, Jason (2024-07-12)
The goal of this paper is twofold. First, we wish to better explain the relationship between Sargent and Wallace’s (1981) unpleasant monetarist arithmetic, the closely connected fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL), and the monetarist view of inflation. Second, we discuss how the recent inflationary episode has contributed to redistributing real resources from holders of government debt to the public purse. In particular, financial prices before the onset of the COVID pandemic suggest that investors viewed an inflationary shock such as the one we experienced as extremely unlikely, so the ...
Quarterly Review , Volume 44 , Issue 2

Working Paper
Perceptions and Expectations of Inflation by U.S. Households
Axelrod, Sandor; Lebow, David E.; Peneva, Ekaterina V. (2018-10-25)
To better understand inflation expectations, we examine newly available data on U.S. households' inflation perceptions-what people think inflation has been in the past. The overarching summary is that inflation perceptions look similar to inflation expectations. The central tendencies of the responses for perceived inflation over the past five to ten years are similar to those of expected inflation for the next five to ten years, and all are a little above official estimates of inflation. Thus, survey respondents overall do not expect long-term inflation to change in the future relative to ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-073

Working Paper
Macroeconomic Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations : A Regime-Switching Framework for the Euro Area
Hubrich, Kirstin; Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric (2017-06)
We investigate whether the response of the macro-economy to oil price shocks undergoes episodic changes. Employing a regime-switching vector autoregressive model we identify two regimes that are characterized by qualitatively different patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the 'normal regime', oil price shocks trigger only limited and short-lived adjustments in these variables. In the 'adverse regime', by contrast, oil price shocks are followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2017-063

Working Paper
Understanding Persistent Stagnation
Cuba-Borda, Pablo A.; Singh, Sanjay R. (2019-03-07)
We theoretically explore long-run stagnation at the zero lower bound in a representative agent framework. We analytically compare expectations-driven stagnation to a secular stagnation episode and find contrasting policy implications for changes in government spending, supply shocks and neo-Fisherian policies. On the other hand, a minimum wage policy is expansionary and robust to the source of stagnation. Using Bayesian methods, we estimate a DSGE model that can accommodate two competing hypotheses of long-run stagnation in Japan. We document that equilibrium selection under indeterminacy ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1243

Report
Term Structures of Inflation Expectations and Real Interest Rates: The Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy
Aruoba, S. Boragan (2014-08-13)
Inflation expectations have recently received increased interest because of the uncertainty created by the Federal Reserve?s unprecedented reaction to the Great Recession. The effect of this reaction on the real economy is also an important topic. In this paper I use various surveys to produce a term structure of inflation expectations ? inflation expectations at any horizon from 3 to 120 months ? and an associated term structure of real interest rates. Inflation expectations extracted from this model track actual (ex-post) realizations of inflation quite well, and in terms of forecast ...
Staff Report , Paper 502

Working Paper
The Swaps Strike Back: Evaluating Expectations of One-Year Inflation
Diercks, Anthony M.; Campbell, Colin; Sharpe, Steven A.; Soques, Daniel (2023-09-22)
This study examines the forecasting performance of inflation swaps and survey-based expectations for one-year inflation. Conducting this exercise helps determine if one set of expectations can provide a cleaner signal about future inflation. The study finds that, overall, inflation swaps more frequently provide better forecasts of future inflation. Previous studies that found poor performance of swaps were strongly influenced by liquidity issues during the financial crisis and the pandemic. When these periods are excluded, swaps have superior predictive ability. Our analysis suggests that ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2023-061

Working Paper
Attention-Dependent Monetary Transmission to Household Beliefs
Jeong, Jaemin; Ma, Eunseong; Yang, Choongryul (2025-09-19)
When do households listen to the Fed? We show the answer lies in a simple but powerful force: household attention to macroeconomic conditions. We develop a model where attention acts as a crucial gatekeeper for the pass-through of policy news to beliefs, and confirm its predictions using household survey data. We find that belief revisions to monetary policy surprises are concentrated among attentive individuals—particularly those with high financial stakes—and this effect strengthens dramatically during uncertain times. This implies the expectations channel is most potent when it matters ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-084

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