Working Paper

How Stable are Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area? Evidence from the Euro-Area Financial Markets


Abstract: We analyze evolution of inflation expectations in the euro area (EA) using a novel measure of inflation expectations implied by the French nominal and inflation-indexed bonds. Overall, we find that EA inflation expectations have been relatively well anchored in the 2004 -- 2019 sample but have been somewhat sensitive to the incoming macroeconomic news and monetary policy shocks in the sample that includes the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results are robust with respect to the use of different inflation-indexed securities data, such as the EA inflation-linked swaps.

JEL Classification: D84; E31; E37; E52; E58;

https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2025.041

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Part of Series: Finance and Economics Discussion Series

Publication Date: 2025-06-02

Number: 2025-041