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Journal Article
Opinion: Inflation and the Road Ahead for Research
Athreya, Kartik B. (2022-10)
While the Fed has never been a stranger to criticism, the criticism has been notable and specific during the past year. The subject: inflation. This is of course fully understandable. Memories remain fresh of last spring and summer, when annual inflation in "personal consumption expenditures" — which the Fed targets to grow at just 2 percent per year — reached 7 percent. Current inflation remains well above target.
Econ Focus , Volume 22 , Issue 4Q , Pages 32

Working Paper
Post-Pandemic Price Flexibility in the U.S.: Evidence and Implications for Price Setting Models
Montag, Hugh; Villar Vallenas, Daniel (2025-03-28)
Using the micro data underlying the U.S. CPI, we document several findings about firm price-setting behavior during and following the Covid-19 pandemic, a period with the highest levels of inflation seen in around forty years. 1) The frequency of price change increased substantially as inflation took off, and has declined markedly as inflation has receded. 2) The average size of price changes also increased as price increases became more common, while the absolute value changed little. 3) The dispersion of price changes did not fall, contrary to the prediction of state-dependent models. 4) A ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-024

Working Paper
Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence
Hajdini, Ina; Knotek, Edward S.; Leer, John; Pedemonte, Mathieu; Rich, Robert W.; Schoenle, Raphael (2022-11-22)
Based on indirect utility theory, we introduce a novel methodology of measuring inflation expectations indirectly. This methodology starts at the individual level, asking consumers about the change in income required to buy the same amounts of goods and services one year ahead. Analytically, our methodology possesses smaller ex-post aggregate inflation forecast errors relative to forecasts based on conventional survey questions. We ask this question in a large-scale, high-frequency survey of consumers in the US and 14 countries, and we show that indirect consumer inflation expectations ...
Working Papers , Paper 22-35

Speech
Inflation and Unemployment
Lacker, Jeffrey M. (2007-03-29)
I recently had the opportunity to guest-teach a couple of business school economics classes. It was great to be back in the classroom. Don’t get me wrong – I like my current job. But it was nice not to have to vote on anything.I opened my discussions with a pair of questions, asking students to put themselves in the place of a monetary policymaker choosing a target for the federal funds rate. First I gave them a set of hypothetical facts about the state of the economy – a slowdown in housing in the wake of multi-year housing boom; rising mortgage default rates; preliminary indicators of ...
Speech

Working Paper
(Re-)Connecting Inflation and the Labor Market: A Tale of Two Curves
Ahn, Hie Joo; Rudd, Jeremy B. (2024-07-11)
We propose an empirical framework in which shocks to worker reallocation, aggregate activity, and labor supply drive the joint dynamics of labor market outcomes and inflation, and where reallocation shocks take two forms depending on whether they result from quits or from job loss. In order to link our approach with previous theoretical and empirical work, we extend the procedure for estimating a Bayesian sign-restricted VAR so that priors can be directly imposed on the VAR's impact matrix. We find that structural shocks that shift the Beveridge curve have different effects on inflation. ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2024-050

Working Paper
Stagflationary Stock Returns
Knox, Benjamin; Timmer, Yannick (2025-08-04)
We study investors’ perceptions of inflation through the lens of a high-frequency event study, documenting they have a stagflationary view of the world. In response to higher-than-expected inflation, investors expect firms’ nominal cash flows to remain stagnant while discount rates increase, resulting in lower stock prices. Both the equity risk premium and nominal risk-free yields rise, but longer-term real yields remain unchanged. Consistent with investors interpreting inflation as a cost shock, investors expect firms with low market power to suffer larger declines in cash flows. Cash ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-056

Working Paper
Is GDP Becoming Obsolete? The 'Beyond GDP' Debate
Nakamura, Leonard I.; Charles, Hulton (2022-11-08)
GDP is a closely watched indicator of the current health of the economy and an important tool of economic policy. It has been called one of the great inventions of the 20th century. It is not, however, a persuasive indicator of individual well-being or economic progress. There have been calls to refocus or replace GDP with a metric that better reflects the welfare dimension. In response, the U.S. agency responsible for the GDP accounts recently launched the GDP and Beyond program. This is by no means an easy undertaking, given the subjective and idiosyncratic nature of much of individual ...
Working Papers , Paper 21-37

Speech
An Economic Outlook - Main Line Chamber of Commerce
Harker, Patrick T. (2017-01-12)
Inflation, GDP growth, and the labor market are ?displaying considerable strength? and indicate a robust American economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick T. Harker said today in remarks to the Main Line Chamber of Commerce.
Speech , Paper 127

Room to Grow? Inflation and Labor Market Slack
Koenig, Evan F.; Dolmas, Jim (2019-05-30)
Compared with the usual ex-food-and-energy measure, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate sends a clearer, more reliable signal about whether cyclical inflation pressures are building.
Dallas Fed Economics

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