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Working Paper
Changing Jobs to Fight Inflation: Labor Market Reactions to Inflationary Shocks
Bostanci, Gorkem; Koru, Omer; Villalvazo, Sergio (2025-06-04)
We argue that inflationary shocks affect allocative efficiency by changing the rate and the characteristics of workers’ job-to-job transitions. First, using monetary policy shocks and survey data on search effort, we empirically show that a one percentage point rise in inflation increases job-to-job transitions by up to 4.5%, and workers with higher inflation expectations are more likely to search and do so more effectively. Second, we build a general equilibrium model of directed on-the-job search to quantify the aggregate implications of labor market reactions. Higher-than-expected ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2025-042

Global Perspectives: Banco de México’s Alejandro Díaz de León on COVID-19, Trade and Inflation Targeting
Wynne, Mark A. (2020-10-27)
Díaz de León and Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan discussed COVID-19, the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) and inflation targeting.
Dallas Fed Economics

Why House Prices Surged as the COVID-19 Pandemic Took Hold
Murphy, Anthony; Duca, John V. (2021-12-28)
In the wake of the short but steep COVID-19 recession, house prices have risen at record levels in recent months, hitting the peak increase of 19.3 percent in July 2021.
Dallas Fed Economics

Room to Grow? Inflation and Labor Market Slack
Koenig, Evan F.; Dolmas, Jim (2019-05-30)
Compared with the usual ex-food-and-energy measure, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate sends a clearer, more reliable signal about whether cyclical inflation pressures are building.
Dallas Fed Economics

Report
Identifying inflation's grease and sand effects in the labor market
Schweitzer, Mark E.; Groshen, Erica L. (1997-10-01)
Inflation has been accused of causing distortionary prices and wage fluctuations (sand) as well as lauded for facilitating adjustments to shocks when wages are rigid downwards (grease). This paper investigates whether these two effects can be distinguished from each other in a labor market by the following identification strategy: inflation-induced deviations among employer's mean wage-changes represent unintended intramarket distortions (sand), while inflation-induced, inter-occupational wage-changes reflect intended alignments with intermarket forces (grease). Using a unique 40-year panel ...
Staff Reports , Paper 31

Speech
How Did the Economy Get Here?
Barkin, Tom (2024-11-12)
A strong but choosier consumer, coupled with a more productive and better valued workforce has landed the economy in a good place.As a consequence, the FOMC has started the process of recalibrating rates to somewhat less restrictive levels.Tomorrow looks different based on whether you take more signal from levels or trends.With the economy now in a good place and interest rates off their recent peak but also off their historic lows, the Fed is in position to respond appropriately regardless of how the economy evolves.
Speech

Speech
The Economic Outlook, Monetary Policy, and Normal Policymaking Now and in the Future; 10.25.18 Money Marketeers of New York University, Inc., New York, NY
Mester, Loretta J. (2018-10-25)
I thank the Money Marketeers of New York University for inviting me back to speak tonight. When I was here four years ago, I discussed the important role that Federal Reserve communications play in making effective monetary policy and the need for these communications to evolve as we moved from a period of extraordinary monetary policymaking to more normal policymaking. At this point, that transition to more normal policymaking has been underway for some time, reflecting the health of the U.S. economy and the progress that?s been made on the FOMC?s monetary policy goals. Tonight, I?ll talk ...
Speech , Paper 101

Working Paper
Price Level Risk and Some Long-Run Implications of Alternative Monetary Policy Strategies
Clouse, James A. (2020-11-09)
This note focuses on the longer-run implications of alternative monetary policy strategies for the evolution of the price level. The analysis compares the properties of optimal policy in regimes ranging from pure inflation targeting (IT), to a form of weighted-average inflation targeting (WAIT), to pure price level targeting (PLT). Strategies such as WAIT and PLT tend to limit the downward drift in the path of the price level and also mitigate the uncertainty surrounding the expected path of the price level. The influence of alternative monetary policy strategies on the evolution of the price ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2020-094

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