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Journal Article
The federal government's budget surplus: Cause for celebration?
Hafer, Rik; Dwyer, Gerald P. (1998-07-03)
Projected surpluses in the federal government's budget have generated fanfare sometimes verging on euphoria. Because the federal government last had a surplus in 1969, a projected surplus for fiscal year 1998 and later years is being viewed as something of a milestone. Unlike policies of the last three decades that have at least paid lip service to lowering the deficit, policy options now may include ways to use the surplus. Some have called for lowering taxes and others for increasing expenditures or retiring federal government debt. ; This article discusses the importance of going beyond ...
Economic Review , Volume 83 , Issue Q 3 , Pages 42-51

Journal Article
Fiscal and monetary policy: conference summary
Dennis, Richard; Williams, John (2005)
This Economic Letter summarizes the papers presented at a conference on "Fiscal and Monetary Policy" held at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco on March 4 and 5, 2005.
FRBSF Economic Letter

Working Paper
Inflation and government budget constraint in Korea
Seo, Byung Han (1996)
The new classical theory of inflation implies that the choice between financing a given path of public spending through debt or tax (seigniorage) finance has no substantial effect on inflation. This paper tests this hypothesis for Korea by estimating a reduced-form relation between inflation, the monetary base, and central bank debt. The empirical evidence suggests that central bank debt carrying information on the expected future path of monetary policy has additional explanatory power for inflation, even after accounting for the effects of the monetary base. It also confirms the ...
Pacific Basin Working Paper Series , Paper 96-03

Working Paper
Fiscal Multipliers at the Zero Lower Bound: The Role of Policy Inertia
Hills, Timothy S.; Nakata, Taisuke (2014-11-20)
The presence of the lagged shadow policy rate in the interest rate feedback rule reduces the government spending multiplier nontrivially when the policy rate is constrained at the zero lower bound (ZLB). In the economy with policy inertia, increased inflation and output due to higher government spending during a recession speed up the return of the policy rate to the steady state after the recession ends. This in turn dampens the expansionary effects of the government spending during the recession via expectations. In our baseline calibration, the output multiplier at the ZLB is 2.5 when the ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-107

Discussion Paper
Federal fiscal constitutions part 1: risk sharing and moral hazard
Tabellini, Guido; Persson, Torsten (1992)
Inspired by the current European developments, we study equilibrium fiscal policy under alternative constitutional arrangements in a federation of countries. There are two levels of government: local and federal. Local policy redistributes across individuals and affects the probability of aggregate shocks, while federal policy shares international risk. Policies are chosen under majority rule. There is a moral hazard problem: federal risk-sharing can induce the local governments to enact policies that increase local risk. We investigate this incentive problem under alternative fiscal ...
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 72

Working Paper
A critical analysis of the Eisner-Pieper fiscal measure
Cohen, Darrel (1991)
Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section , Paper 117

Working Paper
Money, credit, and fiscal policy in Mexico's \"lost decade.\"
Gunther, Jeffery W.; Moore, Robert R. (1994)
Financial Industry Studies Working Paper , Paper 94-5

Discussion Paper
Fiscal policy, specialization, and trade in the two-sector model: the return of Ricardo?
Baxter, Marianne (1991)
This paper develops a two-sector neoclassical model of international trade with endogenous capital accumulation and intertemporal optimization. In contrast to the traditional 2x2x2 model, there is a Ricardian implication that countries specialize according to comparative advantage. Consequently, the theory predicts that government expenditure policies are unlikely to affect the established pattern of specialization and trade, but that changes in tax policies can result in a dramatic reorganization of world production. Further, the dynamic 2x2x2 model can explain many of the salient features ...
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics , Paper 56

Discussion Paper
What Might Cuts in Federal Government Spending Mean for the Fifth District?
Norris, Stephanie; Pinto, Santiago; Waddell, Sonya Ravindranath (2025-03-21)
In a previous post, we examined the concentration of the federal government workforce in the Fifth Federal Reserve District — a region that includes the government-concentrated District of Columbia and surrounding areas in Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia. However, workforce concentration is just one aspect of federal government spending in our district. Virginia and Maryland, for example, have consistently been among the top recipients of federal contract dollars. To understand the extent to which the Fifth District relies on the federal government requires examining not only the ...
Regional Matters

Conference Paper
A new interpretation of the coordination problem and its empirical significance
Canzoneri, Matthew B.; Edison, Hali J. (1990)
Proceedings

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