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Journal Article
The Mexican peso crisis
Hoping to avoid an economic slowdown during 1994, Mexico tried to maintain its quasi-pegged exchange rate while limiting monetary tightening by engaging in massive sterilized intervention-a policy that is not sustainable for long. The ultimate result was a collapse of the exchange rate, soaring interest rates, and probably a far worse recession than would have occurred if monetary policy had been tightened. ; The author of this article asks whether Mexican policy mistakes made devaluation of the peso inevitable, considering particularly Mexico's policy actions during 1994-as well as options ...
Journal Article
The Mexican economic crisis: alternative views
The authors of this article suggest that many of the explanations for the 1994 crisis are based on questionable assumptions and dubious analysis. They contend that, when trying to explain the crisis, most authors have concentrated on the wrong economic "fundamentals." They challenge the conventional view that the crisis was caused by a combination of flawed fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies. Their explanation for the crisis belongs in an alternative camp that emphasizes the vulnerability of the Mexican financial system to swings in expectations and investor confidence. ; In their ...
Journal Article
The banking sector rescue in Mexico
In Mexico the December 1994 peso devaluation provoked a profound economic downturn in that country and revealed a fragile banking sector. Fearful that the financial system would collapse under a rising level of past due loans, the Mexican government mounted a rescue of the banking sector by intervening in the daily operations of some problem banks while establishing a series of capitalization and restructuring programs available to all banks. ; This article examines Mexico's bank rescue efforts (1995-98) with a particular focus on the role of the deposit insurance fund, the Bank Fund for the ...
Journal Article
Understanding recent crises in emerging markets
The world economy is going through a difficult and dangerous period. The recent Brazilian currency meltdown is one more in a series of events that includes the Asian crises of 1997-98 and the Mexican crash in 1994, and there is uncertainty about whether other emerging economies will be infected with the Brazilian virus. ; Dealing with crises in emerging economies is, therefore, an urgent matter. However, what to do about these crises is a source of heated debate. According to the author of this article, much of the confusion arises from the fact that accumulated knowledge about crises in ...
Journal Article
Mexico's financial crisis affected other Latin countries
Journal Article
A chronology of the Mexican financial crisis
Working Paper
Financial crises and total factor productivity
Total factor productivity (TFP) falls markedly during financial crises, as we document with recent evidence from Mexico and Asia. These falls are unusual in magnitude and present a difficult challenge for the standard small open economy neoclassical model. We show in the case of Mexicos 1994-95 crisis that the model predicts that inputs and output should have fallen much more than they did. Using models with endogenous factor utilization, we find that capital utilization and labor hoarding can account for a large fraction of the TFP fall during the crisis. However, these models also predict ...
Journal Article
Mexico's crisis: looking back to assess the future
Mexico's most recent economic crisis took many in the international business community by surprise. In early December 1994, the Blue Chip consensus forecast for 1995 Mexican real GDP growth was 3.8 percent. A few weeks later, on December 20, the devaluation of the Mexican peso rocked international financial markets. What first appeared to be a minor correction in Mexico's nominal exchange rate quickly developed into a broader financial crunch felt in and outside Mexico. The Mexican government now expects the country's real GDP to fall about 3 percent in 1995; some private economists suggest ...
Journal Article
Policy priorities and the Mexican exchange rate crisis
Mexico's December 1994 devaluation and subsequent financial crisis came as a surprise even to some analysts who focus on Latin American financial markets. This article outlines the events leading up to the devaluation and discusses the tension that mounted throughout 1994 between policies to address growing banking-sector problems in Mexico, the policies designed to preserve the nation's exchange rate regime, and the pressures induced by rising U.S. interest rates. The article concludes that-while each difficulty impeded the resolution of the other-the explosive nature of the ensuing crisis ...
Journal Article
Do international financial crises defy diagnosis?