Search Results
Journal Article
The dubious success of export subsidies for wheat
Report
Navigating Geoeconomic Risk: Evidence from U.S. Mutual Funds
How do investors perceive and navigate the emerging geoeconomic risk? We identify firm-level geoeconomic risk using supply-chain links to Chinese firms targeted by U.S. export controls. Affected U.S. suppliers experience negative abnormal returns around policy announcements. These shocks propagate to mutual funds through portfolio holdings, raising volatility and lowering performance. Fund managers respond by reducing exposure to China-linked exporters, increasing portfolio concentration, and buying more lottery-like stocks. A long–short portfolio based on geoeconomic risk exposure earns ...
Journal Article
Using the gravity model to estimate the costs of protection
Many economists expend a lot of energy decrying trade protectionism; nonetheless, their estimates of the actual burden that protectionism imposes on the economy have been surprisingly small. In this article, Howard J. Wall presents a method that captures some of the effects and distortions of trade protection which have not been captured by existing methods. Wall finds that during 1996, worldwide protectionism reduced U.S. exports by 26.2 percent. Likewise, U.S. protectionism decreased U.S. imports from non-NAFTA countries by 15.4 percent. He calculates further that the welfare cost of U.S. ...
Journal Article
Export Alaskan oil?
Working Paper
Endogenous export subsidies and welfare under domestic cost heterogeneity
We present a model of Cournot rivalry where domestic and foreign firms compete in a third-country market, and where the domestic export subsidy is determined by lobbying. Greater domestic cost heterogeneity (a mean-preserving spread of the marginal costs of the domestic firms) means that the subsidy level, aggregate domestic output, and domestic market share will all be higher. However, the effect of heterogeneity on domestic welfare is ambiguous. From a near-symmetric initial situation, greater domestic cost-heterogeneity reduces domestic welfare if the number of domestic firms exceeds some ...
Report
Securing Technological Leadership? The Cost of Export Controls on Firms
To safeguard its technological leadership, the U.S. has restricted domestic suppliers from exporting specific cutting-edge technologies to selected Chinese firms. Domestic firms affected by these export controls halt sales to Chinese customers, as intended, but struggle to establish new relations with alternative customers domestically or in politically aligned regions. As a result, domestic suppliers experience a $130 billion decline in market capitalization, along with reductions in profitability, employment, and bank lending. We also show how Chinese firms strategically respond to export ...
Discussion Paper
The Anatomy of Export Controls
Governments increasingly use export controls to limit the spread of domestic cutting-edge technologies to other countries. The sectors that are currently involved in this geopolitical race include semiconductors, telecommunications, and artificial intelligence. Despite their growing adoption, little is known about the effect of export controls on supply chains and the productive sector at large. Do export controls induce a selective decoupling of the targeted goods and sectors? How do global customer-supplier relations react to export controls? What are their effects on the productive sector? ...