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Discussion Paper
Firms and Artificial Intelligence: A Regional Update
Similar to past technological developments, the productivity implications, labor market implications, and thus economic implications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) will evolve over time. A lot depends on who is using AI tools, when they are using them, and how they are using them.In the Richmond Fed's December business surveys — which were fielded between Dec. 1 and Dec. 17 — we asked firms if they have adopted AI and if so, how they were using it. Businesses reported that they were increasingly providing employees with access to AI tools to complete tasks but were less likely to have ...
Briefing
Public and Private Labor Market Data: Insights From the Government Shutdown
Private and public data are complements, not substitutes: Private sources offer speed and granularity, while government surveys provide representative benchmarks.Different data sources can measure similar but subtlety different things. For instance, JOLTS, ADP, RPLS and Gusto all measure "employment" but define it in different ways.These differences can lead to very different measurements, illustrated by two private data sources diverging by 100,000 jobs during the shutdown.
Speech
The Path to Full Recovery
The past two months have been painful across the country. We have lost lives. We have lost tens of millions of jobs. We have lost security, connectivity and community.Multiple states are now in the process of reopening their economies. But, despite unprecedented measures by both the Fed and fiscal authorities, things won’t be returning to normal quickly. As I wrote a few weeks ago, the pace will likely be slow, as businesses and consumers adapt to a world where personal interaction creates health risks.As the United States navigates the path to recovery, I have been focusing on how much ...
Journal Article
Features: Finding New Opportunities for Federal Workers
For 25 years, Michael Rodriguez has worked in international public health, most recently leading a multi-country, $40 million U.S. Agency for International Development funded project to strengthen health care systems in regions plagued by persistent violent conflict, climate disasters, and displaced populations. When the federal government shuttered the agency's operations in February, he found himself furloughed at first and then ultimately let go on March 10.
Briefing
Monthly Job Reports: How Do Private Sources Fare?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics produces monthly estimates on job gains/losses through the Current Employment Statistics' establishment survey.In the past few years, more alternative job reports have become available through private sources, such as ADP, Revelio, LinkUp and Intuit.While job estimates from these private sources can replicate the trend pattern of their official BLS counterpart, they are not always accurate and reliable at higher frequencies, especially during volatile periods.
Briefing
The Persistent Decline of LFP Rates for Older Individuals Around the Pandemic
Labor force participation (LFP) experienced a bit of a roller coaster ride with the onset of the pandemic. But not all age groups experienced the ride in the same way. For example, we see two very different paths for the LFP rates of prime-age (25-54 years old) individuals on one hand and individuals over 55 years old on the other. In this article, I focus on the latter group, for which (as of September 2024) LFP rates have not recovered to prepandemic levels.
Working Paper
U.S. Import Tariffs in 2025: Realized Tariff Rates, Import Prices, and Local Labor-Market Effects
This paper analyzes the effect of the 2025 U.S. import tariffs on import prices and local labor-markets. To that end, we use highly disaggregated customs data to construct realized tariff rates from actual duty collections, rather than announced statutory schedules. An important contribution is that we document a large and persistent gap between the two measures, driven by within-country product reallocation, cross-country sourcing shifts, and implementation frictions. This implies that statutory rates are a poor proxy for the trade shock that firms actually faced. Using realized tariffs, we ...
Briefing
Hiring Puzzle: Why Do Firms Decrease Hiring So Much in Recessions?
The unemployment rate fluctuates with the business cycle, rising and falling as economic activity changes: Businesses increase hiring during expansions (causing unemployment to decline), and they reduce their hiring efforts during recessions (leading to persistently high unemployment rates). Productivity shocks are the main driver of the business cycle, but are these productivity fluctuations also the sole driver of such employment cycles? In this article, I discuss my recent work showing that productivity fluctuations alone are insufficient to explain employment fluctuations.
Journal Article
District Digest: Working on Wellness: The Rural Health and Employment Link
Adverse health events can be disruptive to employment. A health shock, such as suffering an injury or developing a chronic condition, can limit an individual's ability to perform the physical and mental demands of work, potentially leading to lower productivity, fewer hours, and even a labor force exit. But the relationship between health and employment doesn't end there — employment outcomes also influence health outcomes. Employment is a key social determinant of health, supporting well-being through financial stability and access to employer-provided health insurance. For some, workplace ...
Journal Article
Business Insights: Tentative Momentum as Uncertainty Looms
After navigating 2025's challenges, firms entered 2026 with cautious optimism. They felt more confident in their own resilience and half joked that the new year could not possibly throw as many curve balls as the last one. Through mid-January, this optimism, however, had not translated into major hiring or investment decisions. While firms felt more upbeat, they were still hesitant. You can read more about how firms began the year in January's "What Businesses Are Saying."In this post, we explore how reported conditions have evolved since, drawing from conversations in early February to ...