Search Results
Briefing
The Persistent Decline of LFP Rates for Older Individuals Around the Pandemic
Labor force participation (LFP) experienced a bit of a roller coaster ride with the onset of the pandemic. But not all age groups experienced the ride in the same way. For example, we see two very different paths for the LFP rates of prime-age (25-54 years old) individuals on one hand and individuals over 55 years old on the other. In this article, I focus on the latter group, for which (as of September 2024) LFP rates have not recovered to prepandemic levels.
Briefing
Hiring Puzzle: Why Do Firms Decrease Hiring So Much in Recessions?
The unemployment rate fluctuates with the business cycle, rising and falling as economic activity changes: Businesses increase hiring during expansions (causing unemployment to decline), and they reduce their hiring efforts during recessions (leading to persistently high unemployment rates). Productivity shocks are the main driver of the business cycle, but are these productivity fluctuations also the sole driver of such employment cycles? In this article, I discuss my recent work showing that productivity fluctuations alone are insufficient to explain employment fluctuations.
Briefing
Human Capital Investment: Would Higher-Order Skills Help Disconnected Youth?
Human capital investments remain cost-effective well into young adulthood.A multidimensional approach to human capital development emphasizes developing self-reflection abilities and strategic thinking skills alongside traditional academic knowledge.Higher-order skills — like teamwork, critical thinking and self-control — offer high returns for disconnected youth and are well-compensated in the labor market.
Speech
The Path to Full Recovery
The past two months have been painful across the country. We have lost lives. We have lost tens of millions of jobs. We have lost security, connectivity and community.Multiple states are now in the process of reopening their economies. But, despite unprecedented measures by both the Fed and fiscal authorities, things won’t be returning to normal quickly. As I wrote a few weeks ago, the pace will likely be slow, as businesses and consumers adapt to a world where personal interaction creates health risks.As the United States navigates the path to recovery, I have been focusing on how much ...
Briefing
Career Progressions and Wage Growth: Decreasing the Gap Between Richer and Poorer Workers
In our previous article, we explored the contribution of different career dynamics to the earnings gap between poorer and richer workers. We emphasized how poorer workers do not lack opportunities to change jobs, as they have high job mobility rates. Thus, they potentially could work at increasingly better-paying firms but seldom do so in practice. Looking at previous economic literature — including a leading framework for the labor market: the job ladder model — we argued that postulating a common job ladder for both poorer and richer workers is not supported by the data. In this ...
Working Paper
Minority Inflation, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy
Our paper addresses the heterogeneous effects of monetary policy on households of different races. The cyclical volatility of real income differs significantly for households of different races and income levels, reflecting differential exposure to fluctuations in employment and consumer prices. All Black households are disproportionately affected by employment fluctuations, whereas price volatility is only particularly pronounced for Black households with income above the national median. The latter face 40 percent higher price volatility than both poorer households of the same race and ...
Briefing
To Whom It May Concern: Demographic Differences in Letters of Recommendation
Letters of recommendation from faculty advisors play a critical role in the job market for Ph.D. economists. At their best, they can convey important qualitative information about a candidate, including the candidate's potential to generate impactful research. But at their worst, these letters offer a subjective view of the candidate that can be susceptible to conscious or unconscious bias. There may also be similarity or affinity bias, a particularly difficult issue for the economics profession, where most faculty members are White men. In this post, we draw on our recent working paper to ...
Speech
Manufacturing in the New Southern Economy
Thank you for inviting me to speak with you today. The focus of this gathering – manufacturing in the economies of the American South – is a timely one, and well-deserves the attention of senior policy makers. Manufacturing has been one of the few bright spots in an otherwise lackluster economic recovery, and understanding what has driven that performance can suggest promising directions in public policy. Beyond purely cyclical considerations, however, the longer-term evolution of manufacturing industries has played – and is likely to continue to play – a vital role in the growth of ...
Discussion Paper
The Foreign-Born Workforce in the Fifth District
In recent years, foreign-born workers have played an important role in shaping regional labor market dynamics. After travel restrictions created a lull in international immigration during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, a subsequent surge in international immigration grew the foreign-born labor force to a level that exceeded previous trend growth in the U.S. and the Fifth District (Chart 1). The increased number of foreign-born workers helped to ease labor market tightness and even shifted how we think about key labor market metrics. Across the Fifth District, the implications of changes ...