Speech
The U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy 07.13.16 Australian Business Economists, Sydney, Australia
Mester, Loretta J. (2016-07-13)
As an economist and policymaker, I appreciate hearing the perspectives of market and business economists. Just as the different views expressed by my colleagues around the monetary policy table help to inform my own policy views, the insights of economists like you help to shape my own economic outlook. The chance to hear perspectives from this side of the Pacific is particularly welcome at this time because we live in a global economy. Today, I will focus my remarks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy. To help put the discussion into context, I will start with a brief overview of the ...
Speech , Paper 74

Journal Article
Investing in the Great Outdoors
Sablik, Timothy (2024-04)
While the appeal of Mother Nature has always been self-evident to enthusiasts, the COVID-19 pandemic brought in new converts. Once it became clear that the virus spread less easily in open spaces, and with many indoor options shut down, outdoor recreation became a compelling option for anyone looking to escape their home or apartment in 2020.In addition to visiting state parks and trails in record numbers, many Americans moved from cities to suburbs, small towns, and rural places in search of more open spaces. According to a March 2023 report from Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing ...
Econ Focus , Volume 24 , Issue 1Q/2Q , Pages 6-9

Briefing
Is Fiscal Austerity Good for the Economy?
Haltom, Renee Courtois; Lubik, Thomas A. (2013-09)
Concerns about fiscal imbalances in Europe and the United States have led to intense debates about whether governments should dramatically cut spending or increase taxes to reduce government debt ? a course of action often called fiscal "austerity." But is austerity likely to hurt economic growth? That question has not been definitively answered ? but even if austerity is costly in the short run, it may provide long-run benefits.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue Sept

Speech
The Economic Outlook, Monetary Policy, and Normal Policymaking Now and in the Future; 10.25.18 Money Marketeers of New York University, Inc., New York, NY
Mester, Loretta J. (2018-10-25)
I thank the Money Marketeers of New York University for inviting me back to speak tonight. When I was here four years ago, I discussed the important role that Federal Reserve communications play in making effective monetary policy and the need for these communications to evolve as we moved from a period of extraordinary monetary policymaking to more normal policymaking. At this point, that transition to more normal policymaking has been underway for some time, reflecting the health of the U.S. economy and the progress that?s been made on the FOMC?s monetary policy goals. Tonight, I?ll talk ...
Speech , Paper 101

Briefing
Learning about Fiscal Policy Uncertainty
Matthes, Christian; Sablik, Timothy (2014-01)
In response to the financial crisis and recession of 2007-09, the federal government enacted a number of emergency fiscal policies intended to aid recovery. These included short-term stimulus measures, such as the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, and temporary tax reductions, such as the payroll tax cut in 2010. However, the unconventional and transitory nature of these fiscal policies may have contributed to greater economic uncertainty. Given the slow recovery that has followed the recession, economists are studying how such uncertainty might impact growth.
Richmond Fed Economic Brief , Issue Jan

Working Paper
Lliquidity, trends, and the great recession
Guerron-Quintana, Pablo; Jinnai, Ryo (2014-08-21)
The authors study the impact that the liquidity crunch in 2008-2009 had on the U.S. economy?s growth trend. To this end, the authors propose a model featuring endogenous productivity a la Romer and a liquidity friction a la Kiyotaki-Moore. A key finding in the authors? study is that liquidity declined around the Lehman Brothers? demise, which led to the severe contraction in the economy. This liquidity shock was a tail event. Improving conditions in financial markets were crucial in the subsequent recovery. Had conditions remained at their worst level in 2008, output would have been 20 ...
Working Papers , Paper 14-24

Expected U.S. Macroeconomic Performance during the Pandemic Adjustment Period
Bullard, James B. (2020-03-23)
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard recommends declaring a “National Pandemic Adjustment Period” and discusses three broad goals of macroeconomic policy during this period.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Growth and Welfare Gains from Financial Integration Under Model Uncertainty
Luo, Yulei; Young, Eric R.; Nie, Jun (2018-12-07)
We build a robustness (RB) version of the Obstfeld (1994) model to study the effects of financial integration on growth and welfare. Our model can account for the empirically observed heterogeneity in the relationship between growth and volatility for different countries. The calibrated model shows that financial integration leads to significantly larger gains in growth and welfare for advanced countries than developing countries, with some developing countries experiencing growth and welfare loss in financial integration. Our analytical solutions help uncover the key mechanisms by which this ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 18-12

COVID-19: What Do FREDcast Users Think about Economic Growth?
Shell, Hannah; Owyang, Michael T.; Bennett, Julie (2020-03-20)
Professional forecasts abound, but what does the general public think will happen with the economy?
On the Economy

Journal Article
Global Uncertainty and U.S. Exports
Sly, Nicholas (2016-04)
Nicholas Sly finds that periods of greater uncertainty and financial volatility within U.S. trading partners are associated with substantially lower demand for U.S. goods.
Economic Review , Issue Q II , Pages 5-23