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Auto Industry on Road to Recovery from Pandemic
After a series of disruptions in March and April that coincided with the widespread outbreak in the U.S., the auto industry has entered a recovery period, though its path forward remains uncertain.
Global Perspectives: Banco de México’s Alejandro Díaz de León on COVID-19, Trade and Inflation Targeting
Díaz de León and Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan discussed COVID-19, the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) and inflation targeting.
Why House Prices Surged as the COVID-19 Pandemic Took Hold
In the wake of the short but steep COVID-19 recession, house prices have risen at record levels in recent months, hitting the peak increase of 19.3 percent in July 2021.
Room to Grow? Inflation and Labor Market Slack
Compared with the usual ex-food-and-energy measure, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate sends a clearer, more reliable signal about whether cyclical inflation pressures are building.
Texas Economic Activity Springs Ahead as Growth Strengthens
Economic activity in Texas accelerated sharply in March, according to recent data that also indicate a continuation of the strong momentum. Fiscal stimulus, greater mobility and increasing COVID-19 vaccinations are driving the improving outlook.
How Falling Oil Prices in Early 2020 Weakened the U.S. Economy
The benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price of oil dropped by more than half from Jan. 21 to April 3. This oil price decline has weakened rather than strengthened the U.S. economy, making this event different from past episodes of falling oil prices.
Journal Article
Tracking U.S. GDP in Real Time
Measuring the current state of the U.S. economy in real time is an important but challenging task for monetary policymakers. The most comprehensive measure of the state of the economy?real gross domestic product?is available at a relatively low frequency (quarterly) and with a significant delay (one month). To obtain more timely assessments of the state of the economy, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has developed a GDP tracking model that combines new econometric methods with two conventional approaches to estimating GDP. {{p}} Taeyoung Doh and Jaeheung Bae review the Kansas City Fed ...
Texas Economy Picks Up in October; Data Revisions Show Weaker 2019 Growth
Texas job growth picked up in October, although the energy sector continued to slip and manufacturing activity weakened.
Real-Time Survey to Provide Timelier Labor Market Data in Era of COVID-19
An effective economic policy response to the rapidly evolving coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis requires timely and accurate information on its impact. To help reduce the information gap, we introduce the Real-Time Population Survey.
CARES Act Likely to Blunt Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increase
Household survey data and recent unemployment forecasts provide a basis for estimating the share of mortgage borrowers that—absent the CARES Act—would have missed a mortgage payment due to the economic shutdown.