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Which Core to Believe? Trimmed Mean Versus Ex-Food-and-Energy Inflation
Twice since 2014, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation—inflation excluding food and energy—decelerated sharply, only to ultimately reverse course.
Texas Economic Activity Suddenly Contracts in March; Outlook Worsens Due to COVID-19
The economic downturn in Texas has begun, recent data suggest.
Real-Time Market Monitoring Finds Signs of Brewing U.S. Housing Bubble
There is growing cause for concern that U.S. house prices are again becoming unhinged from fundamentals.
What’s Up (or Not Up) with Wages?
This is the third of three articles that talk about the natural rate of unemployment, the unemployment rate that would prevail in a “neutral” labor market after removing all movement due to the business cycle.
Pace of Texas Economic Growth Slows as Supply-Chain, Staffing Woes Persist
The Texas economy continued expanding in December and January, though the pace of growth decelerated relative to the overall fourth-quarter pace.
How the Saudi Decision to Launch a Price War Is Reshaping the Global Oil Market
In the second week of March, the already fragile global oil market was rocked by Saudi Arabia’s announcement that it would expand oil production to unprecedented levels, signaling an end to its price cooperation with Russia.
Effects of COVID-19 on Tourism, Energy Weigh on Texas, New Mexico, Louisiana
Economic performance within the individual states of the Eleventh District reflected those states’ underlying relative dependence on the tourism and energy sectors and the effects of restrictions on mobility and engagement during COVID-19.
CARES Act Likely to Blunt Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increase
Household survey data and recent unemployment forecasts provide a basis for estimating the share of mortgage borrowers that—absent the CARES Act—would have missed a mortgage payment due to the economic shutdown.
How Much Slack Is Left in the Labor Market?
Our analysis shows that viewing the level of employment through the lens of the employment-to-population ratio does not indicate considerable slack in the labor market.
Trade Relationships Affect U.S. Dollar Appreciation’s Impact Across States
The value of the U.S. dollar against other currencies has appreciated, making most goods produced in the U.S. more expensive overseas during the past year.