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Working Paper
Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World
In economics, we need to forecast the present because reliable and comprehensive measures of the state of the economy are released with a substantial delay and considerable measurement error. Nowcasting exploits timely data to obtain early estimates of the state of the economy and updates these estimates continuously as new macroeconomic data are released. In this chapter, we describe how the framework used to nowcast GDP has evolved and is applied worldwide.
Working Paper
Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model
We build a model for simultaneously now-casting economic conditions in the euro area and its three largest member countries--Germany, France, and Italy. The model formalizes how market participants and policymakers monitor the euro area by incorporating all market moving indicators in real time. We find that area wide and country-specific data provide informative signals to now-cast the economic conditions in the euro area and member countries. The model provides accurate predictions of economic conditions in real time over a period that covers the past three recessions.