Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model
Abstract: We build a model for simultaneously now-casting economic conditions in the euro area and its three largest member countries--Germany, France, and Italy. The model formalizes how market participants and policymakers monitor the euro area by incorporating all market moving indicators in real time. We find that area wide and country-specific data provide informative signals to now-cast the economic conditions in the euro area and member countries. The model provides accurate predictions of economic conditions in real time over a period that covers the past three recessions.
File(s): File format is application/pdf https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/files/ifdp1313.pdf
Part of Series: International Finance Discussion Papers
Publication Date: 2021-03-30