Search Results
Discussion Paper
Fifth District Firms and the Prospect of Higher Input Prices
Since the middle of 2023, firms' year-ahead input price growth expectations have been relatively steady, hovering around 3 percent for manufacturers and between 4 to 5 percent for service providers. However, recent developments in trade and tariff policy have introduced new uncertainty into firms' decision-making. In December, our surveys showed little evidence that this uncertainty had made its way into firms' price or cost growth expectations. Data from our February surveys show a slight uptick in firms' expected growth in the prices they pay their suppliers.In addition to the slight uptick ...
Discussion Paper
The Impact of Hurricane Helene on Fifth District Businesses
Hurricane Helene caused significant disruptions across the Fifth District, especially in western North Carolina, upstate and western South Carolina, and Southwest Virginia. More than 200 people died from the storm, utilities and drinking water became unavailable, and people were displaced from their homes. In the storm's aftermath, the Richmond Fed has been actively monitoring and reporting about its impacts, including on the devastation of Hurricane Helene and what we have been learning as business conditions evolve. In our November business surveys, fielded between Oct. 24 and Nov. 20 ...
Journal Article
Opinion: Data Measurement and Monetary Policy
The impact of monetary policy on the economy unfolds over time, with what Milton Friedman described as a "lag that is both long and variable." To make ideal policy, central bankers would have to know the nature of shocks to supply and demand, the fundamental structure of the U.S. economy (for example, the level of maximum employment or how monetary policy changes are transmitted to firms and households), the evolution of non-monetary structural changes and economic policy, and the rate at which monetary policy would be neither expansionary nor contractionary (the neutral rate).
Journal Article
At the Richmond Fed: Surveying Fifth District Businesses
Surveys can be a fun way to poll an audience about a range of current topics. But over a longer time horizon, they can become powerful tools of economic analysis.The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond has conducted its regional surveys of business activity every month since 1993, making them the second longest-running regional surveys in the Federal Reserve System. (The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing business outlook survey dates back to 1968.)
Discussion Paper
Firms and Artificial Intelligence: A Regional Update
Similar to past technological developments, the productivity implications, labor market implications, and thus economic implications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) will evolve over time. A lot depends on who is using AI tools, when they are using them, and how they are using them.In the Richmond Fed's December business surveys — which were fielded between Dec. 1 and Dec. 17 — we asked firms if they have adopted AI and if so, how they were using it. Businesses reported that they were increasingly providing employees with access to AI tools to complete tasks but were less likely to have ...