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Journal Article
The U.S. trade deficit: made in China?
Rapid growth of the U.S. bilateral trade deficit with China has promoted a widespread view that the overall trade deficit is "made in China." The authors examine the probable consequences of increased protection directed toward U.S. imports from China. Their appraisal of recent and prospective U.S. trade policy focuses on textiles and apparel?sectors where the growth of imports from China has been prominent. They also consider the likely effects of yuan appreciation on the bilateral and overall trade deficits.
Journal Article
Why aren't the Chinese buying more American goods?
The important point is that both the Chinese trade surplus with the United States and the amassed foreign reserves result from the savings decisions of Chinese consumers.
Working Paper
Making sense of China’s excessive foreign reserves
Large uninsured risk, severe borrowing constraints, and rapid income growth can create excessively high household saving rates and large current account surpluses for emerging economies. Therefore, the massive foreign-reserve buildups by China are not necessarily the intended outcome of any government policies or an undervalued home currency, but instead a natural consequence of the country?s rapid economic growth in conjunction with an inefficient financial system (or lack of timely financial reform). A tractable growth model of precautionary saving is provided to quantitatively explain ...
Working Paper
Adjusting Chinese bilateral trade data: how big is China's trade surplus
Hong Kong plays a prominent role as a re-exporter of a large percentage of trade bound for or coming from China. Current reporting practices in China and its trading partners do not fully reflect this role and therefore provide a misleading picture of the origin or ultimate destination of Chinese exports and imports. We adjust bilateral trade data for both China and its trading partners to correct for this problem. We also correct for differences due to markups in Hong Kong and different standards for reporting trade (c.i.f. versus f.o.b.). For 2003, we estimate that China's overall trade ...
Journal Article
A look at China's new exchange rate regime
In this Economic Letter, the author reviews several characteristics of the new renminbi regime. He also examines how the renminbi might have moved in the past if this regime had been in place. Because the PBOC provided only guidelines, and not specifics, about the composition and trade weights of the reference basket, he constructs three likely indexes and compares their movements with each other and with the bilateral renminbi-U.S. dollar exchange rate. He finds that movements in China's trade-weighted exchange rate indexes over the long term are relatively insensitive to currency ...